WE ARE THE RAINBOW IN SOMEONE’S CLOUD

The sun is a daily reminder that we too can rise again from the darkness and we too can shine our own light and spread the glow for others to shine.

The thought is hope in this sea of petrified humanity, enervated & with despair.

The family, relations, friends and any person known to us would become dodgy in days ahead, weakening the cord that held societies.

 Hope is that cord that we must not let go and fall in an abyss in trying times.

This antipathy would be a new way to live in the world that we can expect to change our world as we knew it not in distant past.  

The humanity evolved over centuries by touch, embraces, holding and shaking hands would go a rapid transformation with a wall of uncertainty ahead of us.

We are now learning that touching things, being with other people and breathing the air in an enclosed space can be risky to our existence.

This uncertainty can never vanish completely for anyone who lived through these endemic times.

The comfort of being in the presence of near ones might be replaced by a greater comfort by an absence of it. Relational intimacy would undergo a transformation that would start questioning oneness.

For developing businesses, Instead of asking- Lets meet over lunch, we would be asking- Can we do it online and over video conference?

Relationship shall never be the same again.

Patriotism would be more inclusive and might not need badges and medallions hanging on chest with stars on shoulders of a uniform to manifest it.

It would also include civil society as large who fought the battle against the pandemics and put their lives on line to fight an invisible enemy that put the entire human race in front of a death row.

During this epidemic not a single bullet would be fired, but it tumbled humanity downhill with immense loss of life, livelihood and with permanent trauma and damages.

We would now witness market-based models for social organization fail. Governments world over would be required to care for society and subsistence to all who need it would be a norm for a long time to come and failing to do it would make them pointed target for world to see.

Self-seeking behaviour of world leaders would be immediately rejected by the society and leaders would be made accountable. Current political ideologies would wilt and welfare-ism would gain tractions.

When this ends, Governments world over would reorient politics.  Governments would allocate substantial new investments in public goods-for health, education, rehabilitation and public services.

Defence budgets would be seriously cut worldwide and would be deployed for reconstructions od societies and not for its destructions.

The economy and the social order would collapse if the government doesn’t guarantee income for the millions of workers who will lose their jobs in a major recession or depression that world has not seen ever- not even during the great depression.  

Triumph of hope and life over fear would still drive the underlying religious belief, but all religions have to interpret the holy books and rituals afresh.

Congregation being part of human gregarious nature would now be differently advocated by religious leaders.

Use of electronic media to address the faithful is already being used and in future, a la carte offer over electronic media could be a norm for conducting a ritual to preaching and even for confession in some faiths.

Obeisance and donations online for furtherance of religious bodies’ social services would be norms. After a while, people would still congregate to their holy places, but way the blessings and greetings are exchanged would look very different.  

All faiths would have to deal with the challenges of keeping faith alive under the adverse conditions at different times.

Religion in future would challenge conceptions of what it means to be a preacher and to follower. Interconnected humanity would help bridge the motive behind religion’s significance and would seek common ground to eliminate frivolity and reduce contact rituals. 

Seeking truth through its credible emissary, science, would gain more protagonists that have been declining against faith & religion in more and more societies would be a norm again.

The world has heard and seen science work in this lockdown to work its magic against theological practices that helped none and could not evade a single death out of this pandemic.

Some countries that relied on the power of God soon realised that God was too busy with his agenda to heal the world otherwise, asides of COVID in the faithful who ultimately were sheltered by science and not by rituals and offerings to God.

In the absence of a viable vaccine for the foreseeable future treatment could involve managing Covid-19 by treating its symptoms rather than its cause.

There is no easy solution. The months ahead will involve a fragile balancing act between the interests of public health, society and the economy, with governments trusting each other on this epidemic more than ever before.

The pandemic battle is only half the story about in finding a solution While half the battle will be in developing the tools to treat the virus, the other half will be to have enough doses and, distributing these in a fair and equitable manner.

If greed again sits on top of fear, then the battle won would be lost still till everyone, rich, poor, marginalised, fringe all get the treatment to get well. If not, then the virus would return with more ferocity and new mutants.

I hope humanity prevails over money and rogue capitalism.

 Personally, I am happy that at least for a generation, if not more, we can expect that public respect for expertise in public health and in medical professionals to be at least restored partially.

Doctors would get back their lost glories in non patients & so would be the scientists, engineers, mathematicians, and all who contributed in building this world, country by country, society by society and by brick by brick.

While Corona wanes progressively, as we all expect, let us celebrate hope with our Doctors, Scientists, Engineers, Frontline Warriors, Police, Civil Society & pretty much everyone else who have contributed & restrained themselves to fight out an invisible enemy.

But when it gets circled by the vanguards involved in vanquishing it, would not help the viruses see the light of the day again.

The day is not far where hopes would thrive again and humanity and science grow everyday to assuage the sufferings of the world and the world itself.

29 April 2020   

TO BE RICH IS GLORIOUS

The quote as the title of my thought is not from an ardent capitalist, but from a hardboiled Chinese communist under Mao for nearly thirty years- Deng Xiaoping.

The sum and substance of Chinese rise of wealth in the world comes our as an essence out of a single lines. Rest are gory details.I think, 

The Chinese Communist Party must be waiting for the day for Mao to pass and when he did, China shed its Red Book economics under Mao that has been no good for Chinese.

The once despised private enterprises made a comeback. Street vendors reappeared on city streets after decades of absence. Profit ceased to be a dirty word. In a bold experiment some state-owned farms no longer had to remit all their profits to the government and were allowed to retain profits.

Deng Xiaoping, once Mao’s right-hand man, announces a new basic policy of Reforms & Opening. China was changing far too rapidly and in a way that western world was awed.

That opened the Chinese economy for foreign investments and that too at terms that were too lucrative to ignore by the profit mongers of the west.By late eighties, China was exporting nearly 35% of its produce, which was previously unthinkable & it was largely due to a wave of cheaply produced textiles to begin with. 

As trade opened up, foreign investment poured in the “special economic zones” and special concessional treatment was given to foreign investment that none could ignore.The number of special economic zones rocketed to 2,000 by the end of the millennia. 

With foreign investment on the rise, the economy grew around nine percent plus a year with help of private enterprise while the inefficient state-owned enterprises languished and faded and with that came the end of stranglehold of regional bosses, who were either punished by jail or death in the name of corruption. 

Wealth creation comes with its own downside.

Chinese were showing the world that how wealth is created and how to build a reserve that stands at US Dollar close to four Trillion US Dollars at mid March 2020.

By end of 2012, China overtook Japan as the second largest economy of the world and just behind USA. With such wealth creation in a span of just three decades, came in the rogue & surveillance capitalism that embraced a single motive- profits. Nothing else mattered.It gives jitters to USA, as China is in a position today to manipulate its currency and can drop value of US dollars worldwide by devaluing its currency without taking any dent to its local economy by just liquidating a fraction of its currency reserve.

With wanton profit motives came the desecration of nature, the rivers in China got so polluted that one could fall sick to the level of hospitalisation by just taking bath in it. The sky became red to yellow to any other colours except blue as we know. The smog and smoke were often so thick that sunrays could hardly reach the earth for days. World started taking note of that, but did nothing.After all, Americans were also interested in profit repatriation from China by doing nothing except investing and giving some intellectual properties to bolster their profits in an easy way by shifting jobs to China and other places at fraction of the cost in manufacturing and in IT sectors. 

Makes sense for a Capitalist society that turned blind to national priorities.Europe also turned a blind eye to these woes of China that were considered local issues. Profits sat on top of all other priorities for everyone in the world in last thirty years.Chinese were the happiest as they made huge amount of money that was unthinkable even three decades back. 

Today China produces two Billionaires every week- a number that is not going to get surpassed by any country in near future.This was not only the power of capitalism, but was abated by reckless state sponsored rogue capitalism for the economy and Communist iron rule for the people, who are still treated with as much contempt as it was during Mao’s regime. 

Profit and wealth creation was the only motive.However, it never ended there and it bolstered to old Chinese obsession of expansionist ambitions. To attain that goal in last twenty years, China carefully picked on vulnerable nations, disturbed nations and corrupt nations to ingress and expands its goal.They started with toxic debts with huge bribe as bait to political class of the country to accept the terms that can never be fulfilled by any legitimate government under any thought and thinking of any political dispensation. 

Countries after countries fell to the game of Chinese Checkers and pawned their country to Chinese for a song.Asides, many African nations are also debt trapped by China and are on verge of collapse to cede more than what they bargained for. Notably are – Angola, Ethiopia, Kenya, Republic of Congo, North Sudan, Zambia, Cameroon, Nigeria, Ghana and several others.

The list is equally appalling in South America and in Asia. It is a frightening situation.The menace of falling into Chinese debt-trap was real, and it is happening. Africa is slowly being tied to the yoke of Chinese debt. China ensured its future wealth in third world.  

Some sold their country for a port, some for a railway line, some for infrastructures and some just for sake of personal wealth where leaders pawned the country.And to get their global influence complete in Asia and in Europe, they invented the OBOR initiatives and countries after countries along the roadmap took the bait of development and countries on both flanks of the route gladly accepted to collaborate on a hope of development - the Chinese model of development. The country those are in debt trap of China mainly just due to OBOR initiative are Djibouti, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, the Maldives, Mongolia, Montenegro, Pakistan, and Tajikistan.

Shylock was a hated character created by Shakespeare as a toxic money lender that demanded his pound of flesh instead of an ounce; China took cues and asks for tons of it. This has now led many countries to go for a debt swap by pawning infrastructure rights to royalty in several countries for even fifty years. That is what sustains wealth creation.  That is wealth creation model of China that professes to be communist country for political convenience & advocates Capitalism for personal convenience for the political class.

While on external front China was on a mode to cherry pick weaker countries that were willing to toe its line, internally China was creating economic zones on standalone basis that were self sufficient in terms of their requirements from start to finish and build a formidable supply chain in an containment zone with minimum cost with scant regards for copyright and IP rights.World loved China for its cheap products that were distributed & dumped around the world at significantly less cost that developed country could produce.Made in China has arrived and they no longer needed to surreptitiously write Made in PRC to avoid the tag of “Cheap Chinese” product. Chinese products were main-stream and acceptability was high.

Today, China manufactures all of World’s 80% Air-conditioners, 70% Mobile Phones, 65% Shoes, 74% Solar Cells, 60% Cement, 45% Ships, and 50% Steel, 40% Laptops (Surpassed by Taiwan that China claims as its own) and even more than 60% of high end fashion brands.China today produces today nearly one in three cars made in the world and it today produces more than 50% of all Electric Vehicles in the world and a technology that is still new in the world.Economies of scale & reverse engineering alongside a formidable supply chain and logistic support, China had the unique proposition that was unmatched by other to match the price of global companies that helped China set up with technology and skills, today they find no match in pricing to compete with them.

Bolstered with such large wealth creation, China took fancy to pick up companies in developed world where they were finding it difficult to enter due to several concerns being raised on practices followed.In the process they surreptitiously entered Western Europe and America and started taking over languishing and sick companies from owners/ shareholders/ governments who were finding it difficult to difficult to run them profitably due to cheaper Chinese products. What an irony- they sold it to the same fellows who squeezed them out of business.It helped them earn the moniker – Factory to the world.

China has ingressed all over the world and largely due to myopic leadership over last forty years, out of that first 20 years China allowed FDI at liberal terms and promise of cheap labour, as a result any company that was who's who in USA had a base in China & Europe followed USA. .Last twenty years, China has started nibbling companies in USA and in Europe. Earlier it was low tech manufacturing and companies like that and later high tech and cutting edge.Similar things happened in Europe and countries like Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece (PIGS, as I call them) became a pawn of China and there is no way that can be redeemed unless by expropriation and takeover by government or by EU intervention.

I do not think that EU will salvage these PIGS again. They will have to learn to carry their own cross to become a survivor. Being a crusader for EU causes is a long shot for them.USA realised it late and then in last ten years or so, they started putting restrictions and scrutiny of all FDI in USA by China under a PRESIDENTIAL ORDER to put brakes on China’s expansionist ambitions.But by then significant damage was done. 

China has acquired several US companies with controlling interests.Europe followed USA and the damage there was far more extensive, including in Germany and England. Germany has now a special board to vet Chinese FDI and they filter it with national security perspective and interests with a fine tooth comb.

But damage is done.

Now for a brief Indian perspective of China and Chinese to understand the haplessness and desperation a “Competitor” can have.Indian Business houses were prodded by some state Chief Ministers, especially Modi,  in early part of this century and that continues even today- urging China to invest in Gujarat & and in India- as a result, 30% of valuation of Gujarat based companies listed on stock exchange has Chinese shareholdings ranging from 10% to 40%. Time would replace the Indian Promoters by Chinese Promoters & given the recent kneejerk reaction of India, sparked by a 1% share bought by Bank of China in HDFC Bank, may take many such decisions to international arbitration & Courts. 

Ring fencing an interest as an afterthought has its serious downside. India never learns a lesson & right from 1962.

Today, just like UN- WTO is also heavily influenced by China. After all, their investments through toxic debts are bound to pay when one has half of Africa and South America and major part of Asia indebted to them. Voting do matters in these bodies.

Chinese are showing the world that how wealth is created and how to build a reserve that stands at US close to four Trillion US Dollars.US can only print more Dollars with consequences. 

China have direct control on most popular emerging neo business names in India. Government has only abated that in the name of FDI.Today,the biggest payment platform Paytm is Chinese owned, Big Basket is Alibaba owned and biggest learning app for students in India Byju's is owned by Ten Cents. All are Chinese. And more than 50% of Smartphone sold in India are made by Chinese companies under making in India initiative, rest are direct imports.

To think that China only supplies cheap plastic dolls and cheap mobile in India is a topic for rustic and uneducated fools to discuss and burn effigies on roads by getting paid less than two dollars for a bravado and exhibition initiated by an equally vacuous political party. .

The initiated ones in India are definitely worried by this Chinese assault by FDI routes that can only be steered through tight policy guidelines that ring fences national interests.

If not done in the right earnest then, India is almost ending like Italy in Chinese hands unless we realise it quickly and start evaluation FDI much more qualitatively and specific. It may hurt bilateral bonhomie of a few political “leaders”, but would help the country salvage its leftovers.  Indian political dispension must realise this very quickly before the fangs are put in much deeper. And Chinese Dragons have very sharp teeth and an un-satiated belly.

Most of Europe and USA doesn't have problem of geographical boundary and occupation dispute, but India has and major ones at that from East to West and also from North to South with China.If it’s not OBOR, then it is the policy of STRING OF PEARLS in south end of India and in the oceans surrounding India. 

I am leaving this thought for a political thought on bilateral.

So China became wealthy by its sensibilities by dumping ideologies and by embracing for profit motives to suit its conveniences.They key to its success had been mass production & reverse engineering and dumping it to the world stifling local industrial equilibrium.

Where China gained most over the world is its political stability as a key factor, unlike in a multi party democracy where are equal voice of dissent and consensus that only consumes time over a decision. China has none like that.

Industrial network clustering and world class infrastructure that they have developed China in a world powerhouse that is matched today by none.And to top it all, The Chinese government helps the industries to the hilt as needed.

So post CORONA, world would see a new world order that could mean demolition of several world order, Winding up or at least rewriting the rules of many World Agencies like WTO & UNO and its arms, if they survive at all the skewed bi & multilateral relations in an emerging world order where political dispensions would find it hard to convince its citizen about a deficit- TRUST.

26 Apr. 20

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THE LANGUAGE OF TRUTH IS SIMPLE & UNADORNED- EMBRACE IT

A apprehensive world has been predicting that the COVID 19 pandemic will be a turning point for all things starting from globalisation, liberalism, communism, social systems, spike in poverty, recession and to the environment degradation etc. Concerns are legitimate

All the apprehensions are as valid and as compelling as the other. There is no sequencing of priorities. All are number one priority, symbiotic, synergistic and inter dependent. 

But the Commander of USA refuses to embrace the reality and would just not listen to the world with his ear to the ground.

Instead he insists on his old ways disregarding what damage it may inflict on Americans amid the COVID 19 outbreak.

And now when the elections are hardly six months away, then can Americans hope for better relief from their President?

I guess he is looking for Cambridge Analytica to get him the answers for social angst.   

This COVID 19 handling & its outcome would make him or break him. That is certain.

In the deepening health and socio-economic crisis, he is projecting himself as the indispensable leader of a nation- a messiah and a saviour, while undermining everyone, including media & his closest team members as well, when they have a guarded and appropriate response.   

His sheer ignorance, arrogance and his eagerness is to save the stock market now rather than saving precious American lives as his priority, a shocking truth that Americans must face.

As the COVID 19 crisis deepens by the day , he would be judged by his actions that assuages the hurt and embalms the society & not by his rhetoric & accusation to all & sundries.   

World has never taken kindly to leaders who have tried to pass the buck by blaming others. .

When the nation emerges from the tragedy of the pandemic amid distressing human loss and an economy in ruins, it will seek to blame someone for the devastation.  

The performance of the Trump administration as incumbent will be the first to be dissected by the nation, by the media and by the world bodies that he has despised and snapped at. .

I am not clear whether Americans will blame Trump for the poor preparedness, incoherence and mismanagement of the crisis, or accept his justifications and his buck-passing to China, Obama, WHO, WTO, UNO or pretty much everyone else he could blames for their misery.

Putting things under the carpet and sitting on it doesn’t make the problem disappear, but when confronted heads on- it can be resolved. It is simplest adage of Leadership.

What a shaky ground America has moved on due to its failure of leadership on top. 

There are deep lessons for the lesser world leaders in it.

Doing monologues with citizens doesn’t mitigate their problems, nor does it chase away the pandemic that has frightened the people all over the world, by clapping or drumbeating from the window sills- it needs hard decisive actions that mitigates the problems of fringe populations, if assurances doesn’t reach the people on ground, then this would snowball to crisis- social and political as well. .

This pandemic is bound to open up the fault line in society across the world- in economy, in politics and pretty much anything else of every country and would be staring at an abyss that could be much deeper than visible.

The fissure would be far more gaping and deep in poor countries where majority of citizens are on the brink of subsistence and at best as daily wage earners who have not only lost their livelihood, but also a source to have subsistence food to survive.

The poor and the fringe citizens of a country also have families to fend for who would succumb from hunger & malnutrition & not due to COVID 19 if not cared for in time.

A country like India & many in Latin America, Asia & Africa would be frayed beyond its limits to make citizens reach minimum food availability and that surge has a deeper concern as desperation throws all cautions to wind & lockdown is getting extended country by country.

Who would follow social distancing then? Who would care for the mask in public and hand sanitization, when a meal for the day would be the minimum need to preserve the life from hunger?

We can see the people on fringe of the economic pyramid getting riotous and on street in thousands in almost all industrial clusters where they are locked in without access to any resources and livelihood, unless their very basic needs of food is satiated.

World has witnessed that in the past & would see it presently. This could be a regular feature and would be untameable, unless comprehensively addressed by respective governments.   

Food riots & looting on a daily basis in less endowed nations have become a daily reality.

Even in the land of plenty, the social markers are getting stretched and essentials are also disappearing from shelves of shops and markets. How long tolerance would remain a virtue & how long the the vacuous words of some leaders would satiate the needs of citizens?

Not for long I guess.

It is time to unite and fight a common enemy with all collective might that the world can garner, leaving aside political posturing and borders and endeavour to reach relief to the last person under stress due to food security. If we fail, then the leadership of the world would be replaced and so would be the tradition of trust and respect.  

The countries and zones of the world who are feeling enthused by a false positive remission of the pandemic spread and have empirically tried to show to the world that they are ready for business & have opened up businesses. Like in China and in several places in Europe, such immature moves have a price tag that would be much steeper if a second breakout occurs due to ill conceived utopia of all is well now.

Lockdown is a safety valve that has to withstand huge social pressure & if opened recklessly can open up a Pandora Box. Cautious optimism and discretion is desired to start the economy gently.

Life versus Profits cannot be a binary choice, but should be judged by a moral compass. Lives of people cannot be a trade off with business.  

The countries that demonstrate haste and recklessness would be in for very rude shock, when the pandemic return to strike back. It would be much harder than before.

It has already re-emerged & surged in South Korea, China & other few places where it was considered as sanitized.

Financial priorities, if it sits on top of this pandemic that is the biggest challenge after first world war, then a resurgent of COVID 19 Pandemic  in those places will not only finish those countries, but would even go for a retooling of political choices and redrawing the boundaries & affiliation to any existing union and or groups.

Italy & Spain, the worst affected two countries in Europe, are opening up business rapidly. That is not only foolhardy, but is also dangerous and can put Europe in a perilous position. All notions of robust health systems in developed world just crumbled like a half baked cookies & the world watched in horror the claims of a citadel turning in to a sand castle that brought our bodies in bags in thousands.

Still if some nations across the world think that life is a party, well then they would be pretty tired to attend the funeral parties. 

COVID 19 follows no boundaries, doesn’t distinguish colour, caste and creed and has not spared the mightiest to the meekest.   

One thing is increasingly clear that choices in post COVID 19 world would not be the same as was for us just a few months back.

If it prolongs beyond a certain timeline, then world would be a different place with different expectations, different needs and indifferent deliveries- country by country.

Solidarity for survival is the need now and a collective leadership can help where no space should be given to most of the present leaders who have built a political base on a web of lies and deceit.

With a sincere wish that I expect everyone to stay safe and remember the old adage from Shakespeare- Discretion is the better part of valour. Well under the circumstance I am taking liberty with an apology to Shakespeare- Distancing is a better part of valour.

At least seems so, if one wants to remain safe.

Dated -14 April 2020

LIVING IN THE SHADOW OF CORONA

The world has changed dramatically in the last three months and has witnessed a rare collapse in activity that has followed with severe consequences unlike anything experienced in our lifetime.

This is a collective crisis like no other and its impact on people’s lives and livelihoods.

A collective effort and action would tell us the effectiveness of containment measures, and the development of the remedies that is on the horizon that is far as of now.

It is hard to predict when a vaccine is available, despite so many laboratories already making tall claims about it without a single vial being produced so far by any of them.

In this time of crisis, profit motives of laboratories have not waned and corporate posturing is visible to stay in limelight & in public debate.    

In addition, many countries now face multiple crises—a health crisis, a financial crisis, and a collapse in commodity prices and its service sectors.

Governments world over are providing unprecedented support to households, firms, and financial markets, and yet there is considerable uncertainty about what the economic landscape will look like when we emerge from this lockdown.

This makes the Great Lockdown the worst recession since the Great Depression, and far worse than the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 that was a financial meltdown due to folly of US Government that allowed unmerited, unverified exotic financial instruments assume derivative values without a penny in underlying assets in those derivatives that collapsed.  

That was financial contagion, this is pandemic. That was a meltdown, this a rapid boil.

This is a truly global crisis of health and question of life and death of people in thousands and thousands & no country is spared.

Emerging market and developing economies face additional challenges with unprecedented reversals in capital flows as global risk appetite wanes.

On top, steep currency devaluation pressures is staring straight at them, India included. Simultaneously, these countries are trying to cope with weaker health systems, and more limited fiscal space to provide support. They cannot cope unless supported by the world.

Countries depending on tourism sector would go in deeper recessions and widespread job loss and likely would shift almost 20 to 25% of their population in poverty- meaning a dollar or less of per capita income per day.

Since the Great Depression, for the first time, both advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies are in recession.

IMF projects in advanced economies negative -6.1 % growths. Income per capita is projected to shrink for over 190 countries. One can easily see that coming. 

The above are the basic contours of baseline cases contemplated by most world institutions, like IMF, World Bank, & other reputed global rating agencies.

I would say it as rather optimistic and social reality aspects considered is largely obscure.  

What happens, if the pandemic may not recede in the second half of this year leading to longer durations of lockdown hence worsening financial conditions and further breakdowns of global supply chains & social unrest & structures?

In such cases, global GDP would fall even further by an additional 4 to 5 percent in 2020.

If the pandemic is more protracted this year and continues into 2021, it may fall next year by an additional 6 to 8 percent compared to our baseline scenario.

That means if this pandemic and lockdown as a consequence of that, we are cumulatively staring at a shrinkage of world GDP by 16 to 20 percent- nearly one fifth of worlds’ GDP.

At baseline case, a value shrink in global trade is estimated at 9 trillion dollars- almost as if India produced nothing for last three years!!!

And in case of extension of lockdown and pandemic rolling over to third or fourth quarter, world would easily lose about 20 trillion of trade values and more than 700 million people going out of jobs and nearly one billion sliding to poverty levels. What the world achieved post liberalisation in thirty years would vaporise in less than thirty months.

That is unthinkable, but is a distinct possibility that cannot be overlooked.  

Economy and Policy trackers of the world now would need two pair of glasses to examine the current realities.

One is with a political-economy where crisis is socio-centric, where social markers are more prevalent over others.

The other is business centric, where global supply chains, wages, and productivity becomes the focus.

Whichever way one looks at it, I am getting increasingly certain in my belief is that world would be fractured from all socio-political angles.

Socio political markers of demography would be redefined as people sliding to poverty in developing world would be quick and very large in numbers. So would be malnutrition and diseases that would push the world in a retrograde mode for several years.

We need a very different kind of economics now, if we are to build socially just and ecologically sound futures. Maybe a pipedream it may seem, but the post pandemic resurgent world would change the way people, politicians, government and policy makers would look at economy, society and people.

In the face of COVID-19, this undercurrent has never been more obvious and challenging.

The responses to the COVID-19 pandemic would simply be the amplification of the dynamic that drives other social and economic crises and a new way to reduce dependencies on globalised supply chain as the mainstay today for growth engine where China played a pivotal role and hence on, China would not be trusted anymore by most countries.

The world would face another dilemma- the prioritisation of one type of value over others. This dynamic has played a large part in driving global responses to COVID-19 thus far.

So as responses to the virus evolve, how might our economic futures develop?

Certainty is difficult call, but it would not be China centric & that is more certain.

How would the world believe them when in this crisis they have piraihnic attitude and are ready to nibble whatever slice of desperation they can buy from the world at deeply discounted price. Many countries, sensing that, have started ring fencing their policies to stave off such parasitic opportunistic attacks on their economy.

No one would trust China anymore, not that they had great fan following, but their stock of “cheap opium” would not be effective bait anymore as more and more of their ugly and dirty ways would come to public domain and world is gauging the overall cost of Chinese product ownership that has human rights, privacy, expansionist and environmental cost. Overall, the cheap has been indeed cheap and financially more expensive in longer run. . 

Today, the global giants of economy have become fragile and are on a verge of collapse, US & China included and not forgetting the Euro Titans.

The economics of collapse are fairly straightforward. Businesses exist to make a profit. With more than 800 million people out of job suddenly worldwide, the businesses would have just one way to go- South. That means taking losses- how much and how long would be the key questions that most businesses would grapple with.

The rehabilitation of businesses and economy is a slow process and would take humungous efforts to put back things to track. In the meantime, the weaker corporations and entities would fall by the wayside and the remaining one would only get momentum, if adequately supported by local policy restructuring and fiscal supports.

During financial meltdown of 2008, USA supported its institutions by injecting nearly a trillion dollar. This time it has committed more than five trillion dollars already for it. That should help us visualise the depth of this shock.   

This is visibly painful, but there is no other way right now out of this abyss.

COVID-19 response cannot be remedied like a wartime economy with up-scaling of production as a panacea to churn out a surging economy. Here we need to be more resilient to pandemics and that would mean lesser productivity as less and less manpower would be available, unless the world develops sudden herd immunity to Covid 19.

That is science fiction. So what we need is a different economic mindset.

Post Covid 19 , the focus of the government worldwide would be reduce human misery emanating out of the pandemic that would mean restoration of job losses, resumption of economic activities, resumption of global trade and other activities that has put the service industries worldwide to a grinding halt.

Resuming them would be quite challenging as disruption and blame politics would take its additional toll.

Latest we hear is about a renowned virologist & a French Nobel Laureate, Luc Montagnier, co-discoverer of the AIDS virus and he is of opinion that that this virus is manmade in Wuhan Safety Level 4 Lab. His postulate seems very plausible that a Corona Virus strand cannot have a gene implant of a malarial genome, unless spliced and engineered.

Many other studies from renowned virologists have also postulated to its “Manmade” credentials that has been promptly denied by China.

If that is a fact and that is being investigated by USA and others, we can see a different ugly world if proven true.

Leakage by mistake would still be viewed differently by the world, but if deliberate, then it is WW 3 that would be fought by biochemical & by software weapons without firing a single bullet. It would be destruction beyond imaginations as full force of technology would be used against mankind, whichever is the country in question, casualty would be human life only.  

USA has already warned China officially on it and certainly the world must get to the bottom of this & truth must prevail, no matter whatever are the consequences and that has the potential to overlook the economic fallout for a while more.

No wonder Trump started taking malarial pills in dozens after being briefed that this strand of virus could have a malarial germ implant.    

20 April 2020