NON-ACCEPTANCE OF THE ACCEPTABLE IS APATHY

At a time of health and economic crisis caused by the global pandemic, the interests of labourers and workers are once again is set to be compromised while the countries are planning to let go the preventive norms, largely, prescribed for COVID 19.

It would be a calculated gamble where politicians are brushing asides epidemiologists, medical professionals, social scientists, economists etc. at a huge risk of second wave. There is no empirical evidence to corroborate such rush at expense of an epidemic that is still killing hundred everyday across the globe.

The revival of economic activity after forced closure is a key objective in all’s mind. However, it is amoral and perverse on the part of some States to address this need by granting sweeping exemptions from legal provisions aimed at protecting labourers and employees in factories, industries and other establishments.

Some Indian federal states have embarked on a plan by allowing units to be operated setting aside many of the requirements of the Factories Act in violation of law and by extending working weekly duty up to 72 hours from normal 48 hours.

This exemption is possible during a ‘public emergency’, arising out of a threat to security due to war or external aggression. COVID 19 is not exactly an act of aggression emanating externally qualifying as war.

Uttar Pradesh has approved an ordinance suspending for three years all labour laws except of child labour and Bonded Labour Laws & the likes.

The most ugly aspect of our country’s, India, response to the pandemic was its inability to protect the most vulnerable sections from its impact, while the country watches with horror the continuance of the collective misery of migrant workers well into the fourth spell of the national lockdown and government and employers combined failed to reassure the migrant workers of two square meals to them and their families & a safe haven or even safe passages those who wanted to go back.

The attitude of the ruling party towards labour remains one of sheer apathy, bordering on contempt. Why else would a government relieve factory owners of even elementary duties- such as- providing drinking water, first aid boxes and protective equipment? Or suspend requirements such as cleanliness, ventilation, lighting, canteens, restrooms and crèches?

We are shamelessly brushing asides & trading human tragedy & dignity over monetary objectives and let us be sure that world would be made to pay a heavy price for it. In civilised world of social democracy in the western world, this would be out-rightly rejected when the time is to give more without measures.

The insensitivity with which political establishment and bureaucrats have handled the matter has been one of indifference; it could have been handled in a much better way.

The situation is dismal even in the organised sector. Companies are unable to pay employees' salary. What would happen to MSEs & SMEs & Micro enterprises?

Public sector employees have been nudged/ asked to contribute to the PM Cares fund. Some of the federal states had to defer employee salary for three-six months or are paid in tranches. It reflects how the federal finance system is crumbling & not working.

Government should have given fiscal stimulus to suppliers and provided income support to those on the demand side. Instead, the government kept sending advisories without any legal binding.

Taking cues from a nonchalant central government, Uttar Pradesh government reportedly told district magistrates office to not file any FIR for non-payment of wages without consulting top government officials.

Looks like some of the federal states of India is returning back to feudalism & Nawabi systems.

The Supreme Court declined to intervene in the migrant labour issue, terming the central government’s efforts sufficient. So the judicial support is also missing to the down trodden and is now works as arms of government’s administrative functions to abet government agendas.

Serious questions are being raised on the independence of judiciary and certainly, if Supreme Court fails to address pandemic crisis on the society on multiple petitions and on multiple issues, the faith of citizens would significantly wane and then we would be walking on the lines of banana republic very soon by an elected autocrat in a democracy of number where quality of voters & their conscious doesn’t matter as long as majority of voters are given some cash and alcohol.

The way we are going, it would not take us long to become Russia type “democracy”.

At the same time, the public imagination is facing a ideological crisis. People look up to states for help. In the present situation, what option they are left with when even Supreme Courts fail to even look at the ensuing crisis.

It means that employers who want to resume at any cost even if means criminalisation of businesses by support from several state governments that introduced draconian measures in complete suspension of several labour laws for the benefit of factory owners.

There is no social dialogue and Trade Unions have been in a state of coma for long. The leftist and rightist labour unions are comfortable at leadership level without being challenged and have joined the party in power. It suits the leadership as long as their nest is feathered.

India is a founder member of International Labour Organization (ILO). The first convention that ILO adopted in 1919 stipulated eight hours of work in a day and 48 hours of work in a week, which has stood the test of time.

Now, six federal state governments of India have redrafted it to make eight to twelve hours of work in a day and 48 to 72 hours a week and government at centre is watching the horror unfold and is perhaps scalping the employers with propagating enfeebled labour laws that proverbially is the last straw that is going to break the camel’s back- the workers.

We are also a signatory to the Tripartite Consultation International Labour Standards Convention, which requires ratifying governments to consult stakeholders, employer and workers' bodies before taking any policy decision related to the labour policy issues & wages. They have been thrown to the winds.

But the federal state governments did not engage at all with trade unions. There is hardly any effective social dialogue on the four codes that were introduced in parliament, and out of which wage codes were passed. India is violating the Tripartite Consultation Convention.

India ratified Labour Inspection Convention as well. The Madhya Pradesh government said there would be no routine inspection and factory owners could go with the third-party audit. It is in violation of above mention convention.

I am compelled to believe, which most would concur that administration and ministers having absolutely no background in the legal aspects of labour laws.

Or it is the cavalier outlook- what can you do, we have every institutions in the country in our pocket, including EC, SC and any other that are supposed to be “independent”? No one is saying the governments’ need to do everything pro-labour but at least should stop treating labour as a unit of disposable tissue paper. They are not and let there be no doubt about it.

Governments and employers who have failed to feel and see the undercurrents are destined to fall. The power of collectivism is far superior and powerful that any gun barrel the tyrant pulls towards the social entities. They failed to make a dent. They are the backbone and bulk of India where 800 million plus are involved as workers in agriculture, industrial and casual works. They have a right to dignity, like any of us.

We saw it in Tiananmen Square, Arab Springs, reunification of GDR & FRG and in our courtyards in 1975, 1977, 1991 and now COVID 19. Each of the movements and year had and has social significance that acted as a pivot to change the world & country- for good or for worse.

Social conflict does not automatically lead to collective action. For such action to take place, a group must have leadership and a clear ideology. Most workers may not have a clear idea of how they are exploited by low pays. The minimum wages across the countries tell us a story of emancipation of workforce & its enablers. The table below would tell us a different tale of woes for our labour. I have taken selective top and bottom eight of the hourly wages paid by leading countries identified by regional groups. You are the best judge to gauge the disparity in workers’ wages worldwide.

BOTTOM OF THE PILE			TOP OF THE PILE
Country	Rate/ Hour US $		Country	Rate/ Hour US $
Sri Lanka (SAARC)	0.26		USA	7.25
India (BRICS /SAARC)	0.29		Japan	8.38
Egypt	0.36		France	8.71
Bangladesh (SAARC)	0.46		Belgium	9.13
South Africa (BRICS)	1.28		United Kingdom	9.59
RUSSIA (BRICS)	1.57		Germany	10.29
Brazil (BRICS)	1.91		Ireland	11.11
China (BRICS)	3.60		Luxembourg	11.87

THE CORE IS EMPTY, THEREFORE NOISY

Yesterday you read about break up of Rs. twenty lakh crores that indeed break up hearts of all empathic Indians who care to delve at least beneath the surface.

When Modi mentioned specific sections of the working poor in his speech, the street vendors, domestic workers, and others; they were very happy as Messiah has etched on stone the oracle and the elixir to their woes in life.   

But what did they get? Empty can and empty promises.

Do not worry about them- they are used to it year after year & they still commit the same mistake again. And again and again.

An offer of loans, with spiteful sermons from the finance minister, that government believes in empowerment not entitlement.

It hardly needs to be said that entitlement is reserved for those corporate & businessmen whose bank loans worth 11 lakh crore rupees can be written off since they have the right ability to buy electoral bonds & other munificence that they are capable to do to the power to be. Of course, the politicians are the best entitled class in India today.

Why this government of minimal performance and maximum noise believes that it is doing best? Any clues by anyone to anyone?

We are at the threshold of French Revolution sort of circumstances where people asked for bread, queen asked them to eat cake instead.

Does it make sense to ask those who have had no income for more than two months, who have likely borrowed money to tide over, to take more loans? Does it sound situational with a slightly different context with the French revolution? Yes, replace bread with some paltry cash & cake with loan. I am not telling the icing on the cake.

Outright cash in hand would have ensured that they could buy their needs and start their work. But our Government prefers to give them fiscal stimulus by way of loans to restart their business and buy sustenance to be repaid after a moratorium with interest. It is sure way to make the capital sink as it would largely used to ensure food security & hence gone as there would be few with repaying abilities.

Of India's workforce of around 40 crores, 93% are in the unorganized sector with extremely fluctuating incomes even at the best of times. The lockdown has crushed their livelihood with risk of infection from COVID 19 rising exponentially. The Government chose to play with numbers when it announced that the package was 20 lakh crores rupees. It was actually not.

The actual cash outlay by the government this year and the impact on the fiscal deficit will be far less. Most of the government’s proposals are credit-focused or are aimed at easing liquidity concerns for many affected sectors.

In some of these cases, any costs incurred will be initially covered through banks or other financial institutions and thus not result in actual cash outgo by the Centre.

What had been included was additional liquidity injected into the system through a number of steps and measures taken by the RBI from February to March adding up to more than 8 lakh crores & it also included the 1.7 lakh crores package announced in March. So, it was not 20 lakh crores but half that amount.

The truth is that the entire package is designed, not to mitigate the woes of poor and workers, but to push the government agenda of pro-corporate reforms. This was summarized by the four Ls: labour, Land, Laws and Liquidity.

The lockdown is being used as a hurried opportunity to further the concentration and control over the nation's economic resources in private hands and to reverse basic rights of the working people and hand them over to private operators on a platter.

Nine state governments have diluted labour laws, including the extension of working hours to 12 by some. Three governments led by the BJP have suspended many labour laws for three years, basically turning workers into slaves with hardly any rights in the name of national emergencies out of COVID 19.

The cash in the hands of poor and migrant labour, including food provisions for two months, is not more than free food for two months budgeted at Rs. 3,500 crores, Out of PMGKY package of Rs. 170,000 crores- only Rs. 8000 crores would go in Jan-Dhan accounts ,  Free LPG to 8 crore families for next three months would translate to Rs. 6,000 crores assuming two cylinders availed in three months. The senior citizens as per government records are 10.4 million and they would get Rs. 1000 for three months, so it would mean Rs. 3120 crores maximum.

Summing up the direct cash benefits that government is rolling out is Rs. 17,620, which is hardly Rs. 20,620 crores at maximum number and with maximum amount. We know by experience that hardly 50% beneficiaries actually would get the cash, but given the benefit of doubts- let us even take the full cash payout & that is hardly 8.8% of Rs. 20 lakh crores.

The Rs 20 Lakh Crore COVID-19 Package is a case of a hollow large drum that sounds loud, therefore, noisy.

It is largely policy tweaking and fiscal facilitation or deferment or setting aside for a period of time that takes the bulk of the package declared and that is by no mean a mean figure of almost 92%.

Now we can say with confidence that our government has learnt the art of fooling most for most of the time.

I am, at last, going to say what others have been saying for several years- Wah Modi Ji Wah.

THERE IS MORE TO IT THAN WHAT MEETS THE EYE

Here's the break-up of Rs. 20 lakh crores 'Aatm Nirbhar Bharat' stimulus package:

Earlier measures: Rs. 192,000 crores

Tranche 1: Rs. 594,550 crores

Tranche 2: Rs. 310,000 crores

Tranche 3: Rs. 1,50,000 crores

Tranche 4+5: Rs. 48,100 crores

RBI measures: Rs. 801,603 crores

Total: 2,097,053 crores

To confuse liquidity with expenditure is a cardinal mistake that we must not overlook. Giving softer loan, extended loan and deferments of instalments are fiscal measures to stave off the ensuing NPA's due to lockdown & is not a stimulus and that makes part of the twenty trillion rupees stimulus that Modi blared on TV.

In reality, hardly 10 % of it would go as direct benefit transfer and rest would be fiscal measures utilised for waiver, deferments and restructuring the existing loans.

We also have example of Germany that has declared a stimulus totalling to almost 2.3 trillion Euros or equivalent of Rs. 184 trillion Rupees. Germany has clearly outlined that out of 2.3 Trillion Euro stimulus, 236 Billion Euros are for recapitalising the businesses that are affected by COVID 19 by direct transfers & grants to restart the businesses. It is not a loan, but is a onetime grant. It has also granted 500 Billion tax deferments to businesses and 1.3 trillion Euros in other liquidity and guarantee measures that would be extended through financial systems. This huge money Merkel committed for hardly 84 million people that Germany has.

The question we need to understand now is to understand that boosting liquidity is enough or to put money in people’s hands to prop demand is?

We having 1360 million people have committed 20 trillion rupees in overall stimulus and has hardly to do with COVID 19 package & that too nearly 802 Crores were already declared by RBI as stimulus for businesses. It simply means that if we had done direct cash transfer to all people then, we could have got hardly 1470 per head. But we have not even done 10% of the package as Direct benefit Transfer to the distressed.

So I am at a loss to understand why we are making so much of a jamboree out of something that is no better that is a confused hyperbole to confuse citizens of India. So here is brief dissection to tell my friends what has been on the table.

Earlier measures: Rs. 192,000 crores (taken before the 20 Lakh crores announcements) and detailed as revenue lost due to tax concessions announced since March 22: Rs 7,800 crores, PM Garib Kalyan Package: Rs. 170,000 crores, PM's announcement for health sector: Rs 15,000 crore

Tranche 1: Rs. 594,550 crores - Emergency working capital facility for businesses including MSMEs: Rs. 3 lakh crores, subordinate debt for stressed MSMEs: Rs. 20,000 crores, Fund of fund for SMEs: Rs .50,000 crores, EPF support for businesses and workers: Rs. 2,800 crores

Reduction in EPF rates: Rs. 6,750 crores, Special liquidity scheme for NBFCs, HFCs and MGIS: Rs. 30,000 crores, Partial credit guarantee scheme 2.0 for liabilities of NBFCs and MFIs: Rs. 45,000 crores, DISCOMS: Rs. 90,000 crores reduction in TDS/TCS rates: Rs. 50,000 crores.

Tranche 2: Rs. 310,000 crores - The second tranche included free food grain to stranded migrant workers for two months and credit to farmers, totalling Rs. 3.10 lakh crores. Free food grain supply for migrant workers for 2 months: Rs. 3,500 crores interest subvention for MUDRA Shishu loans: Rs. 1,500 crores, Special credit facility for street vendors: Rs. 5,000 crores, Housing CLSS-MIG: Rs. 70,000 crores. Additional emergency WCF through NABARD: Rs. 30,000 crores, Additional credit through KCC: Rs .2 lakh crores

Tranche 3: Rs. 150,000 crores- MFEs: Rs. 10,000 crores, PM Matsya Sampada Yojana: Rs. 20,000 crores, TOP to TOTAL: Rs. 500 crores & Agro infra fund: Rs. 1 lakh crores, Animal husbandry infra development fund: Rs. 15,000 crores, Promotion of herbal cultivation: Rs. 4,000 crores, Beekeeping initiative: Rs.500 crores

Tranche 4+5: Rs. 48,100 crores - Viability gap funding: Rs. 8,100 crores, Additional MGNREGS: Rs. 40,000 crores

RBI measures: Rs. 801,603 crores announced prior to 23 March for liquidity mesures and support to banks/ NBFC / MFis etc.

Total: 2,097,053 crores - of all tranches+ RBI contributions.

So cash transfer is much less as indicated below,, rest are policy tweaking and structural adjustments due to COVID 19-

1. Free food grain supply for migrant workers for 2 months: Rs. 3,500 crores
2. PM Garib Kalyan Package: Rs. 170,000 crores, a break up is indicated below, but it has not rolled out to more than 50% of intended beneficiaries & that includes –

• Rs. 500 each to 19.86 crores women Jan Dhan account holders
• LPG cylinders to be provided to 8 crores poor families for the next three months free of cost.
• Rs. 1,000 for senior citizens to tide over difficulties during next three months.

So now get the jingles out of the noises aroud 20 lakh crores

E& O E possible as continuous typing and editing is hard.

 

THE PRICE OF GREATNESS IS RESPONSIBILITY

This headline quote from Winston Churchill says all about the current global pandemonium in leadership crisis. We are staring at a black hole that by its indecisiveness could harm more, worse still when they shift goals every day. We have our favourites in most countries where mediocrity competes to decide the best path. What results do we expect from most?

 

In the din of the constant up-and-down of corona-virus news, both from scientific world and the financial centres of the world, it’s easy to lose sight of the scariest scenario that is staring at our face, we are getting blind sighted by the enormity of the problems that is bigger than anything that we have seen in our lifetime.

 

There’s no magic bullet fired by a Knight in shining armour that will wean away our predicament and dispel the clouds of concerns with a ray of hope. We have to look at the despair with a glint of hope that is the only way to moderate expectations. But notwithstanding the gloom around virus, we mustn’t give up looking for hope. Human civilisation has evolved around that just one word- Hope.

 

What happens then, when efforts of thousands of Scientists, Epidemiologist and Medical Professionals fail in a few initial attempts? Will they get busy reinventing the vaccine again? Yes, they will, enterprise is part of human DNA- etched eternally. Realism demands every confluence of event that could occur with reasonable probability has a tinge of Hope. No virus has ever been able to kill it -in the past, now and also in future as well.

 

To me, it is a anecdotal reality that there could be no effective Covid-19 transformative therapy that could pass human trials with risk-rewards in favour in next twelve months.

 

Most Governments have planned for the worst-case scenario, some with deeper studies and some just follow without delving in details of the fallout during those apocalyptic hours- as that possibility could never be ruled out. The Governments those are ill prepared with a plan for COVID-19 would face a major governance failure and erosion of faith in them world over. The world is facing its worst socioeconomic downturn in last hundred years. Closed factories, quarantines and global lockdowns have caused economic activities & livelihood to collapse.

 

The grim reality, underscores the magnitude of the shock, which the pandemic has inflicted on both advanced and developing economies and the daunting task that policymakers face in containing its fallout. It is an arduous journey ahead for all. The world still looks like a killing field where a funeral has also been a luxury for the victims of Covid-19. Most of us cannot recall anything like this in our lifetime. 

 

Incentives to industries and people can work only to a point – but this life threatening fear of infections inhibits people to come out of a mindset that is overwhelmed with memories & news of acute traumas. The human mind is psychologically affected that would need to be de-scarred in millions by counselling and instilling confidence to get back their lives. We hardy consider psychosomatic afflictions as an illness needing similar consideration as any other illness that humans grapple with. Insensitiveness to others plight is also a serious malaise that our societies now need to get aware of and act on it with compassion. For healing societies & nations, we would now need millions of volunteers to console and handhold the world, country by country, that has lost hundreds and thousands of lives of near and dear ones across all continents. This trauma still continues unabated.

 

Country after country that are considered as citadel of solidity and invincibility currently are showing cracks in their walls and resorting to panic button by hoarding medicinal supplies, basic essentials, controlling food supplies and insulating people from global travels, the crisis seriously has impeded growth and would reverse decades of gains that accrued from globalization. Ring fencing, a country & states within, would be more harmful than a measured unwinding of the economy & society. In coming days, global leaders would be compelled to take this choice, as economic imperatives would leave no choice but to let go such controls. Several European countries are now resorting to it already, including some of the worst distressed ones; we would know the depth of the rut from the path taken by them. We have little choices as of now. Options are limited and risk-rewards are equally loaded with potency to swing both ways.  

 

Our best hope to kick-start the economy lies in the hope of believing in herd immunity and as it happens, which it should, more and more people would get immune to COVID-19 and fewer fatalities would happen. This is a hope and assumes better case circumstances based on past episodes of pandemic. Eventually, lockdown cannot be perennial and sensing this, many global leaders would now start to advocate this postulate of herd immunity & for that we have no empirical and anecdotal evidences from current crisis, but history supports such plausibility during pandemics, depending on the acuteness of it, time span may vary. The time for soft selling the idea of herd immunity is ripe.

 

The magnitude and speed of collapse in activity that has followed the pandemic is unlike anything experienced in our lifetime. No country & its leader can sit tight on it. Proactive steps would also decide the emerging leadership that is under the lenses globally. Considerable uncertainty remains as the health of the economy will be dictated by a single vector- the trajectory of the virus. The undercurrent would be still palpable & nervous globally. If the pandemic persists into the second half of the year, which it likely should, despite Governments are avoiding admitting it, the global economy contraction could be several times more damaging and the anticipated rebound in 2021, as wider consensus, could fail to materialize if additional waves of the virus spread later in the year.

 

Just take top three economies of USA, China and Japan going into a negative growth rate by just 2% on an average, which is most certain, then GDP of those countries would shrink by at least 8 trillion Dollars in negative from a projected positive growth of 12 trillion Dollars in similar timeframe. This excludes likely negative contribution by Germany, India, South Korea and rest of 20 countries that also have nearly 40% contributions to the global GDP. The other 173 countries, outside the top 20, make up less than 22% of total global economy. It means that we not only are going to give away the gains that we should have normally done, but would also lose about twelve trillion Dollars as an overall GDP shrinkage globally. This would make the world go in a tailspin and trigger many social chaoses worldwide.

 

The impact of economic collapse, which is visible to me and should be to most of us at this point of time, would be unlike anything we have ever seen in history. All of this just because of an invisible enemy that world has not been able to overcome as yet.

 

The minimisation of the pandemic impact would need a calibrated response from global leaders. This could mean relook at global governance issue and protection of national industries & businesses that despite incentive would find it hard to avert bankruptcy & collapse. It would naturally mean loss of livelihood for millions across the globe. None can remain insulated from it- some less, some more.

 

It would also raise conflict and parallel realities that have portrayed different manifestations from different perspectives. The necessity of fostering international cooperation would be an imperative that would be a compelling need to stave off a common enemy. It also means that presently there is no common mechanism in the global arena for a growth consensus as I do expect undercurrent of hatred and backlash to decouple national economy from a global supply chain. It is very likely that the new economic order emerging would be country specific and individual countries in the west would significantly invest in capacity buildings.

 

The inability of global bodies, like UNO & its arms, WHO, World Bank, WTO and other bodies out of multilateralism cooperation have failed the world and are losing their grip for consolidation in a post Corona world where global funding to them is bound to shrink. If it does, then the structures & modalities would be very different and would emerge finely tooth-combed from the domination of a few countries at such global bodies. So would be challenged the veto mechanism of the UN Security Council. Today it has only stifled world progress and emerging leadership’s stakes for a wider participation by the rogue nations that have been sanctioned veto powers decades ago.

 

Today the world is sitting on a ticking time bomb, for that the plug is not yet pulled, but an economic pandemic never seen in the history is not remedied, then the force of implosion would fragment and lacerate the world with noncooperation from economic activities, that would see massive unemployment, massive business failures in MSME & MSE and significant contractions of large businesses that would put many in the poverty abyss in developed countries as well.

 

World & countries have hardly any option to chose, but to allow opening of the economies, despite the risk of lives & to pin its hope on herd immunity to move the wheels to restore normalcy over a period of time. Otherwise, the genesis of economic apocalypse written in history would not have a Noah’s Ark to salvage the world and its population.

 

Today economic acceleration is the pivot that decides wellness than any other vector that measures a prosperous society and a country. Any slippages of that is a social moribund that pushes the other social markers worse much rapidly. This time this pandemic and its economic force would not spare anyone and any nation. People would have more expectations from their governments and failure to deliver would see a political upheaval globally that helps emerge a new leadership with new hope and fresh horizons.

 

Failure to do so would also shift topic of discussion as poverty in poor and emerging economies would no more be discussed, but it would be talking point in developed nations as well.

 

World orders are getting redefined and in coming months & years & would also set a new leadership matrix, where weaker nations would be more vociferous and demanding than to be sold to the lollipops.

 

The hegemony of dominance would witness a war of attrition and one of defiance that can be only be bridged by trust that world would find it hard to find in current world order. Therefore, we are staring at a cautious world where countries would not be defined by groups & zonal sectors, but the forthrightness to restore global confidence. We would witness titans falling by the waysides and hope would be the driver that leaders must espouse and demonstrate by assertive actions. Talking parrots of the world, my country also leads in this, would not be given any further option to lead the world and nations, nor any trust be reposed in rogue nations & its leaders. They have done more than enough damage already to the world.

 

Indeed we are transcending through an epoch time that is bound to rewrite world history where we have defined a villain but have not yet found a hero.

 

The search is on.

 

12 May 2020

STATES RINGED BY FENCES WILL IMPRISON THEMSELVES

Migration is an expression of the human aspiration for dignity, safety and a better future and has been entwined with existence of human history for thousands of years. It has continued un-relented and would continue till humans live on this planet.

The themes of migrations have not changed a wee bit in thousands of years. A better life, a better hope and a better acceptance has been the wish-list of humans- then and is also now.

We all have migrated- some for good, some for a while and some for self development & livelihood. But we have all migrated & yet we all snide at migrants & refugees who seek shelter for a better life trampled by the circumstances. 

The pandemic could worsen the existing vulnerabilities of the world's refugees and internally displaced persons (IDP) & equally compelling legitimate migrant labours across the globe. Travel bans, closed borders and living conditions in squalid camps all augment the risks to migrants, including refugees & IDPs.

This pandemic is going to intensify the helplessness of some of the 300 million international migrant workers worldwide, asides from the majority of the world's 67 million refugees, including IDPs, in developing countries that are now getting affected by the pandemic. They had a bleak future in the past that just got worse due to political missteps of the world leaders. Just think about it for a while that how are they different from us? Hardly any.

 Over 190 countries, territories and areas have passed travel restrictions due to COVID-19, including prohibitions of entry of nationals from other countries & even movements internally. Uncertainty and concern should not become a plank for punishing migrants.

With this backdrop, I would focus on internal migration issues of my country- India and not on the continental and global issues this time. My country is in dire straits, just that we are unwilling to grapple with this reality. Let us get reminded that ours is the second most populous country of 1,350 million people having its own set of problems that also has the highest number of citizens moving out for a better life as migrant. The Diaspora is 20 million worldwide who have migrated permanently. Rest have been on Job Visa.  

It is becoming clear that COVID-19 will not disappear immediately; the economy will need to be managed alongside persistent infection risks for a protracted period and reconcile with the truth of rising infection & death rates in India.

In the past seven weeks, India’s economy has functioned between 35-45% of its potential depending on the sector. Automobiles, for example, did zero manufacturing and sale in April 2020. This is unsustainable in the shorter terms also.

The Indian lockdown and restart capability would not be smooth and would be closely aligned to state and central-government policy and support to industries.

This would completely depend on migrant workers returning to resume works. Unlikely, the full force would return as almost 45% of economic activity is concentrated in 130 red-zone districts that are critical centres of production and consumption in India.

Keeping these red zone districts operational and safe would be critical in keeping economic activity sustainable. Can a single Government, under federalism, ensure safety cover to the migrant and other workers? Till now nothing- but doles to keep their voices down. They are voiceless today.

Economy of India cannot get back on tracks without migrant labours. Most of the industrial states are significantly dependent on migrant labours who are mostly employed on casual basis. All this would need to change fast; otherwise, we are staring at another pandemic- reluctant migrant class unwilling to move readily out of harrowing experience that they have & are facing already. As it is, worker participation rate has come down significantly due to lockdown.

Reopening of economic activity and migrant resettlements & engagements without a preparedness for pandemic related disaster would be more detrimental than to delay and Governments should take this opportunity to set things right.

This cannot preclude Migrant workers’ rights- remuneration and safety net, retirement & family benefits. All of them are lacking and are barely extended to just about 5 % workers engaged in organised sectors that have modest privy to these in India.

Migrant labour forces in their lifetime, for the first time, have felt the acuteness of existential crisis & more painfully- survival. We have to realise the “value of mote” & the treatment that we gave the migrants so far- just like dirt to be dusted off without a care.

Hundreds of thousands of migrant workers have chosen to walk thousands of miles to reach their village in for some solace, risking life, despite poverty staring at their face. Governments failed to provide the migrant workers the basics in adequate measures to keep them stable. If such desperation continues, we would see riots as a daily affair in this country and that pandemonium would be starker than the pandemic.

I do not think that India ever thought seriously of labour welfare after 1977 and have invariably been driven by investor demands to creep in a hire & fire policies, including for casual workers that includes migrants, both male & females that is left to languish at the exploitative hands of the employers whose hands are only equipped by the Governments’ policies of dilution of rights and safety net to suit a profit convenience.

It is nexus of exploitation that is rampant worldwide & in India is glaring and acute is due to lax compliances by agencies. Minimum statutory wages in India is much less than two dollars a day on an average if we consolidate the entire pool.  

Many countries in the world even deny basic human rights – GCC countries & Africa would be apt example not forgetting the Asian Titan- PRC. 

Can the same companies operating in India & having bases in developed world can apply the same standards of safety , compensation and welfare of Indian labour in their country of origin, say- Japan, Germany, France & USA? We all know the answers.

To enable the economy to reopen sustainably championing the health and safety of citizens, India needs to take into consideration several measures, like, strengthening local health preparedness in pandemic zones, guaranteeing safe passage along key labour zones. Given the supply-chain linkages, the safe and controlled movement of labour will be critical if economic activity is to resume.

Migrant workers mostly now have acute trust deficit, especially in SME & MSME, where employers have left their migrant casual labour force that constitutes almost 80% of employments, high and dry. They have distrust with Governments as well.

Our Governments that have continued in power for last seventy year by touting removal of poverty and when that plank failed, the tokenism started with small doles declared in big numbers, but rolled out minimally. All action by the Governments thus far has been just populist & optics, without tackling the fundamental problem..

It is time for migrant workers & that fraternity to unite in a changing paradigm and assert and demand their rights to dignity, remuneration, social security by honest collective bargaining. Migrant labours & labour class have been failed miserably by deceptive practices & corrupt unionisation where rights were diluted and social security was thrown to the winds. It all happens right under the nose of Governments and are fully sanctioned. A raised voice is eased out and padded & worse is stifled and silenced.

We also have example of Europe, particularly Germany, where there is dual Governance system of a dual Board - Supervisory Board & Management Board- where employees are positioned to protect their rights & remunerations and also defining their obligations. It is the most democratised system in the world.

Is it hard to emulate? I think no. All it needs is a national commitment and support of Governments. We cannot have state specific labour law where all are Indians.

World has many great functioning model for right protections and why is it so difficult for our country to take a leaf out of them for larger interests on one and all.

Despite the contribution made by migrants to the national economy, most remain on the fringe of society & are preferred over local labour by employers because they are cheaper and are not unionised. The plight doesn’t end at that; they are rarely full citizens in the state of their work- they lose voting rights, they lose free healthcare and subsidised food and fuel under the PDS & find it hard to educate their children.

As migrants become one of the most important sources of labour across the country, services and support for migrant workers need to be seen as an essential investment for India’s development trajectory. But some states, like Karnataka, issued a blanket ban on their movements under the dictates of Builders lobby and cancelled their trains and transport so that they do not move. This is no better than bonded labour and advocated by a state government. What can be more demeaning & exploitative than this?

Looking ahead, the future remains uncertain and India will need to be ready for all sorts of eventualities. India’s economy will need to function alongside COVID-19 for a very long time. A well-implemented dynamic and locally driven lockdown policy can crank the economy’s engine in phased and planned manner, while managing health risks is required alongside protection of rights & remunerations of all workers- migrants or otherwise and more than 120 million migrant labours life depends on it.  

There is much at stake for India, in both lives and livelihoods, to get this right this time, otherwise, asides migrant workers crisis, businesses also would pull down shutters.  .

In the end, we all love utopia; but we have the lost paradise, called India. 

 9 May 2020

DARK NIGHT HAS NEVER OVERCOME THE SUNRISE OF HOPE

We are, often, the victims of our own deeds, our own manoeuvrings, our own prejudice, our own schemes, our reprehensible plans, our politics and evasiveness.
Just think about it for a while and you would get a sense about this pandemic that afflicted and killed so many as our own doing on a global scale that has not been seen in centuries. It could have been stemmed, but we didn’t.
Yet, all is not lost and it never was also in the past when epidemics struck the world.
There is light at the end of the tunnel, but there is problem– the tunnel is too long and the light too dim currently. But this is the path we, as a world, needs to follow. Howsoever, long the tunnel and dim the light maybe.
At least there is light and a hope awaiting all of us. World has overcome far worse consequences that almost obliterated continents and countries.
Then also it changed the world orders n the past and this time as well- it should. 
The effect of pandemic is not yet seen in Africa & many densely populated pockets of Asia. Ground report in those zones clearly is the fear and the underlying apprehension of unpreparedness to deal with a full blown crisis. Those geographies have a reason and a history of it.
If it spreads in those geographies, like the way it did in USA and Europe, then it would not be hard to see the aggregate death toll, by the time this is over, could cross nearly one million or more worldwide. Certainly a grim possibility, but we can’t run away from it.
Currently, all countries are self-isolating and trying to ring-fence and trade off between two most difficult choices- More victims or more damaged economy? Everyone faces this painful choice with no answer in definitive.  
The cause & effect weakness only adds to the sinking of the world economy as a whole. They emerging economies are important cogs in markets, as consumer and producer, and well and part of a global supply chain. The interdependencies effect & cleft would be more glaring than ever before.
At a human level, the current economic pandemic is going to be so steep that getting back to employments would not be easy even for professionals & experienced hands & those global large firms that engaged them would not be in a position to absorb their old strength of workforce. Small firms and one man show type businesses would find it hard to get back a firm ground to kick-start their businesses, unless supported to the hilt with resources and policy initiative. They are probably staring at longer tem shrinkages. The mid sized firms could themselves be scampering for cover to prevent from financial collapse or at best be working towards consolidation as a survival strategy. We have witnessed similar events in 2008 and even before that several times.
I foresee outright state collapses as distinct possibilities. The commoditised nations & petro-states could be the first in the line of casualties and the collapse of crude to unsustainable level is only going to hasten that process. How much money could be injected to keep them afloat is a matter of conjecture.
And from where such kind of money would come is another debate.
Many in Africa, South America and in Gulf would not be able to manage debt and default and land in hyperinflation & steep currency devaluations.
Global economic disparity and diminished international “salvage” funds further accelerate the collapse.
I also foresee a further disaster in making & that is the exodus of migrants from failing states. Thus, we should expect the migrant crisis from South America to USA and from Middle East & Africa into Europe to surge again.
This time it would a second pandemic- not out of Corona, but a fall out of Corona & economic collapse of many countries.
Who would be their takers on humanitarian ground is yet to be seen- unlikely any. The large hearted Western Europe would have its own set of problems & food security, health & wellness being top priorities.
I believe, world would very soon land in another crisis- food shortages & that would be critical as all pandemics have a history of trail of food destruction, pest and famine. This could take at least three crop cycles to normalise & that means at least a year and a half and even developed nation would be stretched beyond the buffer stocks. We may not face famine, as world stocks of basic grains are adequate for a year or so, but food security is a distinct priority and would be top right of way for all nations.
So we have three distinct possibilities - collapse of many small & commodity dependent countries, large population migration and food crisis & each is a pandemic with a different potential to do further harm to the world.
Investment priorities would shift with inertia to seek solutions for humanity despair & that would mean biotechnology and supportive IT to keep pace and to complement synergies. The global emphasis would be also to heal the earth rather than scorch the earth. Energy quality would see a major shift and would only be accelerated by the cost effective alternatives, but toxic coal & oil based energy demand would wane significantly and would be shunned worldwide.  
I am not waging on the winners and the losers. Certainly a collaborative world seeking solution to the crises would be a great idea & for that time is now.
Society would change markedly & its mainstay of development- education would see a completely different way to learn and coach. Off campus non contact real time virtual classes would be main-stream and education would become global.
Curriculums no more would be straight jacketed decided by Governments, but would now be offered by Universities at the choice of students on eligibilities.
Emphasis would be “learning your passion” akin learn what we teach you.
The further we crystal gaze the future, the more we can imagine how global societies may well be reinvented by this pandemic. We have to look at it with affirmative hope. There would be no time to lament.
Yet world leaders know they are living through epoch-making times that are the hardest they might have faced in their lifetime. Competing ideologies, power blocs, leaders and systems of social cohesion would be stress-tested in the court of citizens & society. The world order of leadership would be driven by the wound healers and not by the blamers & the leadership that watched it from the sidelines. Just about four or five world leaders would play a leading role in solving post-Covid-19 pandemic problems and rebuilding the international order.
Bygone has to be bygones; people would forgive, but may not forget!! But lessons would be there for one and all and world would know the difference between trust & trustworthiness, which entail worthiness asides, the trust.
The world would be split in competing narratives - one that extols solidarity by coming to defeat the pandemic and the other where countries would stand apart in order to better protect themselves from it. Deteriorating trust, ego and ideological beliefs may strain this, but the threat of global economic collapse may unite them.
We can already see the sense of the emerging new world order that would be tested with their bellies up for dissections. The Corona is likely to be remembered as an event, changing our lives in a myriad of ways; right from education, how we go back to work, how we relate socially and how we receive medical assistances & how we look at leaderships. The world order of priorities would change for a long time.
We must believe in a better future where people and nature thrive together. We also need to strengthen the resilience of our ecosystems and societies that can help avoid future crises or at least improve our ability to respond to it. World is hopeful of a rapid policy response to crises based on the best science rather than self-interest. We also hope that governance systems are up to the challenge so that societies and economies can be as resilient and robust against social crises.
We are all in this together and we have a choice- to heal the world.
Global leaders must now rise up to the challenge and get in a mode of global cooperation. There is no other way out of it. History will judge us & them how well the crisis was dealt with in the coming months.
There is hope that our future generations would be left healed by the spirit of collaboration & cooperation. This is for now and for future.

5 May 2020