We are, often, the victims of our own deeds, our own manoeuvrings, our own prejudice, our own schemes, our reprehensible plans, our politics and evasiveness.
Just think about it for a while and you would get a sense about this pandemic that afflicted and killed so many as our own doing on a global scale that has not been seen in centuries. It could have been stemmed, but we didn’t.
Yet, all is not lost and it never was also in the past when epidemics struck the world.
There is light at the end of the tunnel, but there is problem– the tunnel is too long and the light too dim currently. But this is the path we, as a world, needs to follow. Howsoever, long the tunnel and dim the light maybe.
At least there is light and a hope awaiting all of us. World has overcome far worse consequences that almost obliterated continents and countries.
Then also it changed the world orders n the past and this time as well- it should.
The effect of pandemic is not yet seen in Africa & many densely populated pockets of Asia. Ground report in those zones clearly is the fear and the underlying apprehension of unpreparedness to deal with a full blown crisis. Those geographies have a reason and a history of it.
If it spreads in those geographies, like the way it did in USA and Europe, then it would not be hard to see the aggregate death toll, by the time this is over, could cross nearly one million or more worldwide. Certainly a grim possibility, but we can’t run away from it.
Currently, all countries are self-isolating and trying to ring-fence and trade off between two most difficult choices- More victims or more damaged economy? Everyone faces this painful choice with no answer in definitive.
The cause & effect weakness only adds to the sinking of the world economy as a whole. They emerging economies are important cogs in markets, as consumer and producer, and well and part of a global supply chain. The interdependencies effect & cleft would be more glaring than ever before.
At a human level, the current economic pandemic is going to be so steep that getting back to employments would not be easy even for professionals & experienced hands & those global large firms that engaged them would not be in a position to absorb their old strength of workforce. Small firms and one man show type businesses would find it hard to get back a firm ground to kick-start their businesses, unless supported to the hilt with resources and policy initiative. They are probably staring at longer tem shrinkages. The mid sized firms could themselves be scampering for cover to prevent from financial collapse or at best be working towards consolidation as a survival strategy. We have witnessed similar events in 2008 and even before that several times.
I foresee outright state collapses as distinct possibilities. The commoditised nations & petro-states could be the first in the line of casualties and the collapse of crude to unsustainable level is only going to hasten that process. How much money could be injected to keep them afloat is a matter of conjecture.
And from where such kind of money would come is another debate.
Many in Africa, South America and in Gulf would not be able to manage debt and default and land in hyperinflation & steep currency devaluations.
Global economic disparity and diminished international “salvage” funds further accelerate the collapse.
I also foresee a further disaster in making & that is the exodus of migrants from failing states. Thus, we should expect the migrant crisis from South America to USA and from Middle East & Africa into Europe to surge again.
This time it would a second pandemic- not out of Corona, but a fall out of Corona & economic collapse of many countries.
Who would be their takers on humanitarian ground is yet to be seen- unlikely any. The large hearted Western Europe would have its own set of problems & food security, health & wellness being top priorities.
I believe, world would very soon land in another crisis- food shortages & that would be critical as all pandemics have a history of trail of food destruction, pest and famine. This could take at least three crop cycles to normalise & that means at least a year and a half and even developed nation would be stretched beyond the buffer stocks. We may not face famine, as world stocks of basic grains are adequate for a year or so, but food security is a distinct priority and would be top right of way for all nations.
So we have three distinct possibilities - collapse of many small & commodity dependent countries, large population migration and food crisis & each is a pandemic with a different potential to do further harm to the world.
Investment priorities would shift with inertia to seek solutions for humanity despair & that would mean biotechnology and supportive IT to keep pace and to complement synergies. The global emphasis would be also to heal the earth rather than scorch the earth. Energy quality would see a major shift and would only be accelerated by the cost effective alternatives, but toxic coal & oil based energy demand would wane significantly and would be shunned worldwide.
I am not waging on the winners and the losers. Certainly a collaborative world seeking solution to the crises would be a great idea & for that time is now.
Society would change markedly & its mainstay of development- education would see a completely different way to learn and coach. Off campus non contact real time virtual classes would be main-stream and education would become global.
Curriculums no more would be straight jacketed decided by Governments, but would now be offered by Universities at the choice of students on eligibilities.
Emphasis would be “learning your passion” akin learn what we teach you.
The further we crystal gaze the future, the more we can imagine how global societies may well be reinvented by this pandemic. We have to look at it with affirmative hope. There would be no time to lament.
Yet world leaders know they are living through epoch-making times that are the hardest they might have faced in their lifetime. Competing ideologies, power blocs, leaders and systems of social cohesion would be stress-tested in the court of citizens & society. The world order of leadership would be driven by the wound healers and not by the blamers & the leadership that watched it from the sidelines. Just about four or five world leaders would play a leading role in solving post-Covid-19 pandemic problems and rebuilding the international order.
Bygone has to be bygones; people would forgive, but may not forget!! But lessons would be there for one and all and world would know the difference between trust & trustworthiness, which entail worthiness asides, the trust.
The world would be split in competing narratives - one that extols solidarity by coming to defeat the pandemic and the other where countries would stand apart in order to better protect themselves from it. Deteriorating trust, ego and ideological beliefs may strain this, but the threat of global economic collapse may unite them.
We can already see the sense of the emerging new world order that would be tested with their bellies up for dissections. The Corona is likely to be remembered as an event, changing our lives in a myriad of ways; right from education, how we go back to work, how we relate socially and how we receive medical assistances & how we look at leaderships. The world order of priorities would change for a long time.
We must believe in a better future where people and nature thrive together. We also need to strengthen the resilience of our ecosystems and societies that can help avoid future crises or at least improve our ability to respond to it. World is hopeful of a rapid policy response to crises based on the best science rather than self-interest. We also hope that governance systems are up to the challenge so that societies and economies can be as resilient and robust against social crises.
We are all in this together and we have a choice- to heal the world.
Global leaders must now rise up to the challenge and get in a mode of global cooperation. There is no other way out of it. History will judge us & them how well the crisis was dealt with in the coming months.
There is hope that our future generations would be left healed by the spirit of collaboration & cooperation. This is for now and for future.
5 May 2020
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