AFGHANISTAN- A FRENEMY & A GRAVEYARD FOR THE EMPIRES 

History is great teacher, if one takes cues from it and move on keeping the events in view.

The image above is seen worldwide is much more than a few Taliban occupying the table in the Presidential Palace of Afghanistan, but is for the framed painting put up on the wall that everyone seems to miss.

The painting is of one Seer in white, Darbesh Shah, blessing a person bowed in his front with a bunch of ripened wheat grass, a symbol of prosperity.

The person getting blessed is Ahmed Shah Abdali, the most respected Afghan ruler in history. We would soon discover more about him in a gist.

Afghan history is sharpened with events that are resplendent with treachery and deceit. So, I am befuddled, as to why, the world is feigning ignorance. History strikes hardest to the society that feigns ignorance.  

The modern day Afghanistan is largely credited to Ahmed Shah Abdali, who later assumed the name as Ahmed Shah Durrani.

Around 1738, at an age of sixteen, he was taken in by Nader Shah Afshar, the ruler of Persia, as Garrison Commander of Afghans.

The modern day Afghanistan is carved out of such empires by Ahmed Shah Abdali, who travelled as Afghan Garrison Commander with Nadir Shah to loot and plunder India many times. Nader was assassinated in 1747 by his own confidants.

Abdali, a confidant of Nader Shah, also betrayed Nader Shah after his death in 1747 and took the Kohinoor ring, which Shah had looted from the India. Abdali took that Kohinoor ring from the dead body of Nader Shah’s finger and wore it and declared himself as ruler.

It was Nader Shah who gave Ahmed Shah Abdali the name of Durre Durrani- The pearl of the era. Ahmed Shah took the name of Ahmed Shah Durrani then on. 

The Afghans chose Durrani as their head of state Durrani and his Afghan army conquered most of present-day Afghanistan, Pakistan, and part of Iran. He even defeated the Indian Maratha Empire, and one of his biggest victories was the 1761 Battle of Panipat, a battleground where history of India has a long trail.

So, the medieval history, rolling into twenty first Century, of Central Asia & Persian Gulf Region is a history of power, greed, betrayal and blood on hand and boundaries getting defined with every victory and defeat.

So, I do not see why the world is blaming Taliban for Afghanistan mess. Tribal wars & holy wars are part of their legacies and the country & the region is at constant wars amongst warlords for riches and outreach.

I prefer to call Afghanistan a FRENEMY- a country that pretends to be friend but in fact is not so in reality for the precise historical reasons above. Afghan army even attacked India in Kashmir & occupied on behalf of Pakistan an area that we know today as POK or Pakistan Occupied Kashmir.

This must be the Afghan lesson that USA learnt after being bitten twice & shied several times in Afghanistan.

History has witnessed Afghanistan as a proven “graveyard of empires”, from 19th-century British Empire to the 20th-century Soviet empire & now America.

It seems that in past two decadal years & more, every step that USA took was a misstep. Thus the turn of events in Afghanistan has been alarming but not surprising.

The Taliban’s rapid takeover of the country culminating in their march to the capital was almost unopposed as President Ashraf Ghani fled the country- allegedly with 150 million US Dollars in Cash.

This is a clear pointer that democracy cannot be forced through the gullet to a society that has never believed in the power of democracy and has proceeded the way it has in its own way- the tribalistic ruthlessness for ethnic cleansing and holy wars.  

USA’s idea of democracy fell flat on its face in Afghanistan where religious hardliners rules above all and any voice against it is silenced by a bullet.

The recent Trump administration’s decision to engage the Taliban diplomatically was the beginning of the US surrendering to the hardliner groups. Biden administration just hastened that process by complete withdrawal.

But was it really inevitable and a fait-accompli?

As I see it- US always controlled the timings of its troop deployments, but the Taliban had the time at hand. More importantly- Taliban had the will.

As a matter of fact, since World War II, the US has failed to decisively win any major war, whether in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq or Afghanistan.

The humiliation may be the one silver lining after the two decades of tragedy & horrific wars in the greater Middle East as Oil is no more the liquid gold and USA need to stop the plunder and pounding for the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

From mid twentieth Century onwards, the raiders & the raided have switched positions and reverse plundering started of Middle East & Central Asia, thanks to its rich oil & gas finds and critical minerals needed for twenty first century.

Now the emerging Superpowers, like China, Russia have recognised the Taliban for Government formation for the simple reason of raiding and usurping its mineral wealth and to capitalise on its strategic location in scheme of the thing like BRI / OBOR initiative of China.

In due course of time, USA would also recognise Taliban Government for its long term strategic interests- it cannot afford to lose its foothold in the region. It can ill afford to give the deckhand now to China & Russia.

In larger scheme of the things, India does not stand anywhere despite its claims of investments of three billion US Dollar, a paltry sum by global standards and the countries that it poses to stand with, in that country.

It was clear when Trump administration struck a deal with Taliban in Doha in February 2020 for peaceful US troop withdrawals. India was not even invited initially to the table as a stakeholder & desperately sought backchannel diplomatic route to have a seat, but no say.  

The new state players, like China, are just looking at the prospect of Afghanistan from materialistic point of view and are emboldened by their Pakistan support (what a fallacy China is living with them).

Afghanistan is rich in resources like copper, gold, oil, natural gas, uranium, bauxite, coal, rare earths, lithium and many other mineral deposits. It was estimated to be worth more than three trillion US Dollars during the last commodity super cycle. China is precisely looking at prospecting those mining deposits.

 

But taming Afghanistan would be much harder than the Central Asian grassland countries under erstwhile USSR.

Taliban can give China a taste of their own noodles and can easily renegade from all commitments. Indeed, it would the matching of the minds that we must observe very closely as it unfolds.

In the words of the ancient Greek emperor, Alexander, wars are easy to march into but hard to march out of.

China could be the next empire that just may find it facing the syndrome of Afghanistan blight- A Graveyard for Empires.

 

CHINA- THERE IS A METHOD IN THE MADNESS

China’s stock markets have tumbled over recently and many Tech driven companies have lost almost 90% of their recent peak prices and continue to erode further.

American investors are asking whether China Inc. is still worth the risk following a widening series of regulatory crackdowns that have wiped some $400 billion off the value of U.S.-listed Chinese companies.

Investors ranging from pension funds to money managers are rethinking their portfolios following China’s decision last week to abruptly disrupt the plans of EDUTECH, FINTECH, TECH AGGREGATORS, ONLINE SHOPS and every other business that is involved in mass user data collections & have plans to list overseas.

Most of their US listed companies have lost between 70 to 90% of their traded price in matter of just seven day and are still to see the bottom.

Earlier regulatory moves had rattled companies like, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. , its unlisted sister company Ant Group Co.

Didi Global Inc., a ride hailing company, that got listed on 30 June this year is already considering going private again to placate authorities. On June 30, the company raised $4.4 billion in an IPO on the New York Stock Exchange—the largest for a Chinese company since Alibaba in 2014. Two days later, Chinese authorities launched an investigation into the company. Citing -serious violations of laws and regulations in collecting and using personal information, Didi was pulled out from Chinese app stores and barred from registering new users. It crashed almost to nothing.

Other Chinese giants have also been put under scanner by China, like TikTok, We-Chat apps are told to align with all relevant laws and regulations.

In the meantime, China’s Ministry Of Industry and Information Technology announced a six-month campaign to regulate internet companies, particularly practices that disrupt market order, damage consumer rights, or threatens data security.

That followed repeated fines against tech giants including Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent for violating antitrust laws, and a new plan to restrict overseas listings by Chinese companies.

Clearly, China wants to control the tech companies that have become too big, too powerful, and able to influence consumer market behaviours & Chinese way of life to improve governance, restrain private monopolies & its citizen data control.

Personally, I always doubted the booming Capitalistic streaks of China that was creating almost a billionaire a week and I feel, at least a very little, that I am right again.

In China one merely creates & holds Equity for the Party as a custodian and nothing more. The four pillars to China’s wealth creation is now redefined as Labour, Material, Capital & Technology has one more pillar now is- Data.

Online businesses have grown exponentially over the past two decades, along with their access to a wide range of user data to businesses.

Tencent’s ecosystem alone spans social media, gaming, maps, mobile payments, and investing—with many companies and even some government agencies hosting services within the WeChat app.

The Chinese government sees data as critical to its efforts to become a leader in emerging technologies, especially in AI, which is stated in its most recent Five-Year Plan. The government plans to apply that data to everything from block-chain-based financial services to medical research to the surveillance state.

It also is unwilling to share its data to USA regulators & Auditors through the audit route for the listed companies and is apprehensive that it is giving up too much of information about China through this listing, including a very detailed mapping of Chinese city roads, suburbs and infrastructures.

It would compel now many technology start-ups to go Private from Public, a measure meant to ease the pressure on poorer students and their parents who are compelled to use them with predatory pricing.

China, through a policy initiative, has ensured no foreign collaboration in all App based technology, no child education apps for children below six years & definitely no classes after 9 PM & certainly is a welcome step for world to follow that had burdened students worldwide with tremendous pressure, especially in developing economies.

New guidelines also intend to improve pay and other protections for delivery drivers in all App technology businesses.

Chinese companies, in last about 20 years, on listing on US exchanges learnt from exposure to international reporting standards and US investors have and had a substantial stakes in China’s rise as a global behemoth.

Chinese government now sees listing mostly as risks and vulnerabilities to foreign engagement, a concession and a bet that Xi is unwilling to take.

When China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, the prevailing view was that China would become more like Western, capitalist countries. To a certain extent, that happened, but the past few years dispelled such notion that China would transform itself to fit the Western world model. On the contrary, nearly the opposite happened.

Chinese leadership is still seeped in socialist contemplation and is not willing to put the needs of the state over the dictates of a free market, Comarade Mao can silently overlook on the Party and State from the large frame above.

In fact, Xi spoke of aligning the tech sector with his goals for national development in 2016 and again in 2018, when he laid out his / Party’s vision to make China as a cyber superpower through indigenous innovation.

 Xi Jinping simply told to the Tech Companies "owners" that who is the Boss.

Chinese bureaucracy is now aligned with Xi’s broader vision to bring private high tech Chinese companies to heel to serve the party's broader mission.

When Jack Ma opened his mouth, ever so little, in a criticising tone- regulators opened an antitrust investigation into Alibaba, resulting in a $2.8 billion fine in April!!!

The Chinese crackdown on its home-grown technology comes amid rising tensions between China and the US, including moves by American officials to push these companies back to China. A US law enacted last year requires foreign companies to delist from American exchanges if they don’t allow their audits to be reviewed by American regulators—which are prohibited under Chinese law.

China simply pre-empted that move by USA at discussion levels, while the financial world watched in horror a seemingly self destructive move. 

China was always monitoring its people through a social framework and state control, now has more decisive means of surveillance and of data crunching to exercise its control of the masses as it wants.

It is clear that a war between the Walls- Wall Street & Great Wall of China has left little room for climbing up or down the Walls in near future.

It has also clearly signalled to the protagonist of Toxic Capitalism that society needs more equality to progress, in education, wealth distribution, quality of life even if it seems abrupt and dictatorial.

Welfarism as a tool to balance a society can never be a sacrificial lamb at the altar of Capitalism. Now, I hope readers can see where I started- There is a method in China's 'madness'. 

 

In the Second Wave, India’s coronavirus deaths have put India on the mat. On top, data integrity issues about COVID death toll made India the butt of the ridicule globally.

With more than three lakh new cases a day recently, India is still the country with the biggest surge at present in caseloads and deaths.

But it has also been the country with the biggest heart: lifting its ban on exports of the drug for malaria, when there was demand for it, sending medical teams to countries in the neighbourhood, and then for its massive Vaccine Friendship programme, under which India exported more than 66 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines to 95 countries worldwide, as grants, contractual obligations and for commercial motives.

To me, it was nothing more than tokenism to look good in the diplomatic world and we failed at it. When Indian politicians would learn to hold a mirror for themselves to see their true ugly faces!!!

Vaccine manufacturers have been exporting to the needy world, but only after ensuring their needs and safety nets.

China has exported 80 million doses to about 60 countries, but only after it managed its own internal COVID-19 crisis. The European Union (EU) has exported 113.5 million doses to 43 countries, EU included. America exported & India too exported.

What were the differentiators?

We all know & as a result today India is also trying to clutch any straw coming its way by waiving all restrictions on vaccine imports that it chose to impose on one and all.

That was the last straw that broke the camel’s back when it opened the floodgate of April & May 2021 that saw people gasping for breath, dead bodies abandoned on streets, buried in loose sands and crematoriums melting due to incessant burning of dead bodies.

Such gory scenes have never been seen in India and will never be seen again- at least that is what one hopes. It was a clear man-made disaster created during election rallies and religious festivals

The importance of global trust and cooperation between nations is an unavoidable imperative to tackle future pandemics.

Vaccines are now a war chest in the arsenal of a nation and are national security assets. The decisions for its use have shifted from public health institutions to the highest levels of government.

Many countries would prefer US or EU-made vaccines over China or Russian origin vaccines if given the choice, yet they cannot access them. These countries are desperate and have jumped at the opportunity to receive Chinese vaccines.

China, again, won the hegemony war or at least is winning by vaccine diplomacy route, where world is willing to pick any straw at them as their saviour. Now it is not a question of efficacy to pick and chose, but is a desperation induced by profit motives by leveraging opportunities in crisis.

Chinese are also more willing than their western counterparts to strike licensing deals to produce vaccines in foreign countries. For example, Indonesia & UAE has become a regional hub for making Chinese vaccines and also would conduct 3rd phase trials in UAE.

China ensured its optics right by greeting the landing cargo planes with diplomats and local leaders photographed and published.

Vaccine diplomacy has provided a global foothold for China’s drug industries myriad by scandals and low levels of trust at home and abroad.

Making Sinovac and Sinopharm, the Chinese vaccines, household names in foreign countries, China may tilt these perceptions and firmly establish it in global pharmaceutical industries.

But after this initial diplomatic brinkmanship in Latin America and in BRI nations, will China be able to sustain its efforts? Sadly, it doesn’t have great track record in it. Time would tell that.

For all their diplomatic success, China has fared less well at home. China’s enormous population may stymie its own vaccination drive, and its efficacy rate is just 50.7% in recent phase-three trials conducted in Brazil, barely above the 50% threshold set by the World Health Organisation for COVID-19 vaccines.

So far China has administered only 0.2 shots per 100 people per day, compared with almost three times as many in Britain and France and five times as many in America.

But in the din of debate over vaccine and virus origin, what we are clearly blindsided is what happens next when this pandemic, after third wave, subsides by middle of 2023 globally? It is an absolutely unchartered water to make any plausible conclusions & at best can be an “educated guess”, if anything like that is there.

Many virulent strains have tendencies to mutate very fast; this COVID is one such virus strand that has mutated much faster than its genome sequences have been fully studied.

That is a big challenge globally and in absence of any proper pandemic data from LDC countries, we have no idea how many virulent strands would emerge and if any vaccine could be effective or world would need to tweak those to combat the variants? Clearly, any answer to that is again a hazardous guess.  

Once this Pandora’s Box is lidded, chances are we have unwittingly allowed the many mutants to take to take root and we do not know who, what or where they are?

We already have lurking dangers of newer variants of Bird Flu, Swine Flu, Ebola, Zica waiting in the queue to get dominant from dormant now. On top, a bacteria strand that was buried in the Arctic permafrost for 25K years has become alive and active. This is less than a week back as I write this.

I can easily see this COVID pandemic becoming an endemic by middle of 2024, where one would need to take a shot to prevent from infections as infections with newer virulent strands may manifest every year, just like for Hay Fever, Influenza etc.

Now that is where I see the real opportunities for the large US & European pharmaceutical majors.

For COVID 19 jabs, the pressures from many quarters are to make it patent free and allow licence to manufacture countries like India, which puts a strong advocacy for it.

WHO, today is controlled by China from Watchman to its Chairman- they have corrupted one and all that mattered and holds thumbscrews for most- from US Universities to Board at WHO & even UN. So, it is not WHO that would decide, but China would. US of A knows this very well and therefore has accepted this demand for patent waivers, knowing how China can capitalise once again on the sensitive-points of democracies,  US & Europe can plan ahead for endemics from pandemics.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table an useful link for readers to know daily shifts in COVID related issues