AFGHANISTAN- A FRENEMY & A GRAVEYARD FOR THE EMPIRES 

History is great teacher, if one takes cues from it and move on keeping the events in view.

The image above is seen worldwide is much more than a few Taliban occupying the table in the Presidential Palace of Afghanistan, but is for the framed painting put up on the wall that everyone seems to miss.

The painting is of one Seer in white, Darbesh Shah, blessing a person bowed in his front with a bunch of ripened wheat grass, a symbol of prosperity.

The person getting blessed is Ahmed Shah Abdali, the most respected Afghan ruler in history. We would soon discover more about him in a gist.

Afghan history is sharpened with events that are resplendent with treachery and deceit. So, I am befuddled, as to why, the world is feigning ignorance. History strikes hardest to the society that feigns ignorance.  

The modern day Afghanistan is largely credited to Ahmed Shah Abdali, who later assumed the name as Ahmed Shah Durrani.

Around 1738, at an age of sixteen, he was taken in by Nader Shah Afshar, the ruler of Persia, as Garrison Commander of Afghans.

The modern day Afghanistan is carved out of such empires by Ahmed Shah Abdali, who travelled as Afghan Garrison Commander with Nadir Shah to loot and plunder India many times. Nader was assassinated in 1747 by his own confidants.

Abdali, a confidant of Nader Shah, also betrayed Nader Shah after his death in 1747 and took the Kohinoor ring, which Shah had looted from the India. Abdali took that Kohinoor ring from the dead body of Nader Shah’s finger and wore it and declared himself as ruler.

It was Nader Shah who gave Ahmed Shah Abdali the name of Durre Durrani- The pearl of the era. Ahmed Shah took the name of Ahmed Shah Durrani then on. 

The Afghans chose Durrani as their head of state Durrani and his Afghan army conquered most of present-day Afghanistan, Pakistan, and part of Iran. He even defeated the Indian Maratha Empire, and one of his biggest victories was the 1761 Battle of Panipat, a battleground where history of India has a long trail.

So, the medieval history, rolling into twenty first Century, of Central Asia & Persian Gulf Region is a history of power, greed, betrayal and blood on hand and boundaries getting defined with every victory and defeat.

So, I do not see why the world is blaming Taliban for Afghanistan mess. Tribal wars & holy wars are part of their legacies and the country & the region is at constant wars amongst warlords for riches and outreach.

I prefer to call Afghanistan a FRENEMY- a country that pretends to be friend but in fact is not so in reality for the precise historical reasons above. Afghan army even attacked India in Kashmir & occupied on behalf of Pakistan an area that we know today as POK or Pakistan Occupied Kashmir.

This must be the Afghan lesson that USA learnt after being bitten twice & shied several times in Afghanistan.

History has witnessed Afghanistan as a proven “graveyard of empires”, from 19th-century British Empire to the 20th-century Soviet empire & now America.

It seems that in past two decadal years & more, every step that USA took was a misstep. Thus the turn of events in Afghanistan has been alarming but not surprising.

The Taliban’s rapid takeover of the country culminating in their march to the capital was almost unopposed as President Ashraf Ghani fled the country- allegedly with 150 million US Dollars in Cash.

This is a clear pointer that democracy cannot be forced through the gullet to a society that has never believed in the power of democracy and has proceeded the way it has in its own way- the tribalistic ruthlessness for ethnic cleansing and holy wars.  

USA’s idea of democracy fell flat on its face in Afghanistan where religious hardliners rules above all and any voice against it is silenced by a bullet.

The recent Trump administration’s decision to engage the Taliban diplomatically was the beginning of the US surrendering to the hardliner groups. Biden administration just hastened that process by complete withdrawal.

But was it really inevitable and a fait-accompli?

As I see it- US always controlled the timings of its troop deployments, but the Taliban had the time at hand. More importantly- Taliban had the will.

As a matter of fact, since World War II, the US has failed to decisively win any major war, whether in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq or Afghanistan.

The humiliation may be the one silver lining after the two decades of tragedy & horrific wars in the greater Middle East as Oil is no more the liquid gold and USA need to stop the plunder and pounding for the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

From mid twentieth Century onwards, the raiders & the raided have switched positions and reverse plundering started of Middle East & Central Asia, thanks to its rich oil & gas finds and critical minerals needed for twenty first century.

Now the emerging Superpowers, like China, Russia have recognised the Taliban for Government formation for the simple reason of raiding and usurping its mineral wealth and to capitalise on its strategic location in scheme of the thing like BRI / OBOR initiative of China.

In due course of time, USA would also recognise Taliban Government for its long term strategic interests- it cannot afford to lose its foothold in the region. It can ill afford to give the deckhand now to China & Russia.

In larger scheme of the things, India does not stand anywhere despite its claims of investments of three billion US Dollar, a paltry sum by global standards and the countries that it poses to stand with, in that country.

It was clear when Trump administration struck a deal with Taliban in Doha in February 2020 for peaceful US troop withdrawals. India was not even invited initially to the table as a stakeholder & desperately sought backchannel diplomatic route to have a seat, but no say.  

The new state players, like China, are just looking at the prospect of Afghanistan from materialistic point of view and are emboldened by their Pakistan support (what a fallacy China is living with them).

Afghanistan is rich in resources like copper, gold, oil, natural gas, uranium, bauxite, coal, rare earths, lithium and many other mineral deposits. It was estimated to be worth more than three trillion US Dollars during the last commodity super cycle. China is precisely looking at prospecting those mining deposits.

 

But taming Afghanistan would be much harder than the Central Asian grassland countries under erstwhile USSR.

Taliban can give China a taste of their own noodles and can easily renegade from all commitments. Indeed, it would the matching of the minds that we must observe very closely as it unfolds.

In the words of the ancient Greek emperor, Alexander, wars are easy to march into but hard to march out of.

China could be the next empire that just may find it facing the syndrome of Afghanistan blight- A Graveyard for Empires.