UNFOLDING OF POWER CENTRES & END OF USA HEGEMONY

Until around 1920 British Empire was the only superpower; from 1940-90 the U.S.A. and the Soviet Union dominated creating a 'bi-polar' world; and since 1990 the U.S.A. has been the worlds' most influential and dominant power, returning to a unipolar world. It is a perceptive history that can be debated but cannot be changed. World is undergoing a tectonic shift in defining dominance. 

The U.S. transatlantic allies appreciate how its global leadership is changing and what this means for their interests. As the United States’ international engagement changes, allies need to intervene to prevent power vacuums from emerging. Europe needs to appreciate the potentially consequences of failing to adapt to changing US leadership and an increasingly complex changing world. 

There is a real chance that the EU project could collapse in the next few years due to external and internal pressures. A fallen European Union would benefit none and the PIGS of the lot (Portugal, Italy, Greece & Spain) would suffer the most and sadly they are the nosiest advocating this alienation. England, as we know how hard they are hit from being away from EU now. The world needs to align quickly without losing time due to pushback that it now is facing from newer non democratic coalitions. 

Today all global objectives under United Nations are almost redundant as mentioned in their Charter>  Maintain International Peace & Security, Protect Human Rights, Deliver Human Aids, Promote Sustainable Developments, Upholding International Laws. Not a single one of UN’s stated objectives are working at even minimum threshold levels. It has become a plain White Elephant.  

As a matter of fact, the world would be better off to reframe the Institutional matrix afresh by dissolving the existing ones & start afresh with newer reality with fresh sets of rules and regulations governing them & newer models of global governance and alliances for diplomacy, trade, environment, human rights, hunger, wars & conflicts, and common resources, like ocean and Arctic zones. 

Global institutions need more diversified leaderships & now would look beyond U.S. hegemony if they are to ensure their long-term legitimacy and influence and hope with member countries. We must not forget that out of nearly 200 UN member countries, almost 150 would fail without institutional supports of world bodies, including several who are barking the loudest under EU umbrella. 

The international responses to the current health crisis seem to herald the emergence of a frailer international system. The resurgence of jingoism and the hardening of state borders and other regressive developments underscore the dangers that current global leadership is bound to face. 

Even before the pandemic, current leadership of U.S. has been routinely criticizing the value of alliances and institutions such as NATO, advocated the breakup of the European Union, and withdrew from a host of international agreements and organizations. That is Trump for U.S. of A for the world. He pandered the autocrat nation’s like- Russia, North Korea, a proxy barking dog for China, he has questioned the merits of placing tested values such as democracy and human rights at the heart of foreign policy.

Trump’s transactional politics only buttresses the notion that U.S. is abandoning its commitment for a rule based international order. Predictions of U.S.’s decline and a shift in international order are not new, but every time, thus far, U.S. cyclically regenerated itself, but this time reality is different. The very forces that made U.S. hegemony so durable earlier are today driving its dissolution. Today, those same dynamics have turned against the United States and are seemingly permanent. 

The emergence of the United States as a singular power was mostly contingent on the dissolution of the Soviet Union and then the continuation of that singularity through the subsequent decade stemmed from the fact that Asian and European allies were content with U.S. hegemony that did not ruffle a status quo and continued its stated commitments. The breakup of the Soviet Union finally closed the doors on the only project of global order that could rival capitalism.

Without Soviet Union’s support, most Moscow-affiliated countries and political movements decided it was prudent to get on the U.S. bandwagon. The world suddenly became unipolar again. The United States and its allies benefitted from a de facto patronage monopoly during the period of singularity. During the 1990’s, most governments saw no viable alternative to U.S. sources of support. USSR was split, Germany had a reunification, Great Britain was a lost cause & China was nowhere. This made the allies smug and became vulnerable to covert attacks on their underbellies.

In the meantime, China virtually entered every household to tighten its stranglehold on their economies, while Russia continues to threaten to cut gas supplies to EU and making those U.S. Super allies to come down to table who were despising Russia as no better a country with a large backyard gas station.

The collapse of communist economies in Eurasia zone brought in disastrous consequences where tens of millions of citizens were pushed on the brink of humanitarian crisis while simultaneously creating a class of wealthy oligarchs who turned state assets into personal empires in cohort with the politicians.

Post the collapse of USSR, the corruption seeped rapidly in many flawed democracies in Asia as well. Not that corruption was absent in the world pre USSR collapse- it existed and continues accelerated & unabated.

A reference about corrupt leaders would be necessary to crack the citadel of facade, frauds and lies that these leaders have proliferated and weakened their countries and have completely destroyed the values of democracy that emerged with collective struggle for a better future. In a world, where power and political influences rule, we are living through a time that is controlled by some of the most corrupt politicians.

Some of the names would shock the readers with disbelief while their publicists and the lobbyist are trying to build an image of saviour and Messiah for them. According to https://www.wonderslist.com/10-most-corrupt-politicians/ , the top 10 of the world’s most corrupt politicians as of 2018 include some names that surprises, but is there as a matter of fact. Just check the link provided.

Even Fiefdoms and Kingdoms have not been out of the lure of corruption. The list is shocking, but it is not my figment of imagination. No wonder- Power corrupts, absolute Power corrupts absolutely.

Throughout the nineties, democratic forces joined and helped produce an illusion of an invincible liberal order of U.S. global dominance. That illusion now lies in slivers & tattered by haughty arrogance of autocratic nations. 

With waning of U.S. dominance (their own doing and rapidly declining under Trump) there was an opportunity for autocratic regimes to spread their influence and often autocratic ones appealed to many leaders of weaker states across the world, especially in Africa and Asia.

That was the pivot point where ingress of China globally, by becoming a WTO member, became dominant, in less than two decades, by using all tricks in the book and taking contracts that now is perceived by many such nations as toxic loans.

The fate of such nations, in near future, is doomed for any redemption, unless global forces works together to build back the democratic narratives by making such regimes irrelevant again- a long shot under current US Presidency.

U.S. no longer presides over a monopoly of patronage and the new regional organizations and autocratic countries challenge the U.S. hegemony today. With shifts in the global economy, with rise of China, these changes have transformed the geopolitical power balance & landscape. 

Policymakers in West, even 20 years back, dismissed such challenges as wishful rhetoric. Analysts in the West specifically doubted that Beijing and Moscow could ever overcome decades of mistrust and rivalry to cooperate against U.S. efforts to maintain an international order. China and Russia now directly challenge the international orders throwing all western calculations to bite the dust.

At UN, as permanent members of the UN Security Council, China & Russia have sabotaged the global agendas of U.S. and have blocked it with their veto powers routinely. They have vetoed U.S. proposals on Syria and efforts to impose sanctions on Venezuela and Yemen. In the UN General Assembly, between 2006 and 2018, China and Russia voted the same way 86 percent of the time. By contrast, since 2006, China and the U.S. have agreed only on 20 percent of the time.

Frankenstein that U.S. created now rides on its shoulder & its hegemony just took a walk by the sidewalk. 

Dominant autocratic regimes- Russia & China- have pushed for new regional security organizations & cooperation resulting in the emergence of parallel structures of global governance that undermines more liberal structures that democracy offers, including those of World Bank & IMF. 

Unwittingly India also became part of such parallel influence. India is a typical example of a country that wants to ride on two boats and now is ignored by most. It is the tacky lowball politics that has lowered its global position as an emerging power to a country that is often considered as a failed democracy by many, if not an autocracy where one man dominates all politics and policies for last 6 years.   

The end of monopoly on patronage has seen the concurrent rise of radical nationalism even in countries that were firmly embedded in the U.S.’s circle of influence like- Turkey, Hungary, Philippines to just name a few. With the expansion of alternative political models, a new feature of international politics is emerging as a result, autocratic regime like; China and Russia have the latitude to question and challenge U.S. hegemony.

The key question to ask now is to what extent U.S. maintains financial and monetary dominance? It today lacks the will and the resources to consistently outbid China and yet expect its allies for the allegiance to U.S. permanently. We can already see fissures in EU and sneering when U.S. openly questions NATO and reduces its forces from the alliances to deploy in Asia to confront China.

U.S. political and economic model to retain its appeal has to first get its own house in order. But to succeed, U.S. must recognize that the world no longer resembles the historically anomalous periods of 1990’s & early 2000’s where chaos in world orders reinforced its dominance.  That singular moment has passed, and it isn’t coming back. World would look for a newer alliances.

Sadly with global pandemic continuing unabated, the likelihood of fascism returning is a reality and a new world order just might get defined in a way that may drag the world in the dark political eras of a century back. After all, history repeats itself, if lessons are not learnt well from it.

This is how hegemonic influences end in democracy, slowly & surely- and new force emerges with mendacious plans for mankind.

We are all transiting a difficult time & by end of 2020, the world should know if it would be a safer place ever or would be in a flux in a conflict zone as has been in the post industrialisation world and now in digital age forever.

 

30 June 2020

WHEN A LEADER LIES - IT’S A FRAUD DONE TO A NATION

When a political narrative is advocated by a government, it starts with underlying intent and transforms itself in a falsehood that leadership is compelled to live. A build-up of such narrative to mask a truth in quick succession and weave a plethora of half-truths and lies quickly helps the leadership lose credibility and goodwill that is hard to regain.

Leaders forget that hundreds of lies cannot mask a single truth – it is crying wolf syndrome. A trust deficit that is never bridged- People are unforgiving and intolerant to lies in democracies. Authoritarian governments do not face such dilemmas. Authoritarian governments can strategically plan for the long term, unencumbered by regular elections, public opinion and Judiciary, Press etc.

Yet the autocratic ascent and democratic descent is contrary to historical fact. Autocracies have often not outlived the autocrats. But democracies have survived beyond its chosen leaders, even when it seemingly had tendencies to veer out of the tracks by forces impelling to weaken it.

Today, world is more of hybrid in terms of its global ideology leanings- Yes, some are more hegemonic and some more liberal than the others. It is all relative and when it comes to functioning.

Democracies can pursue long-term strategy in part as it enjoys domestic political stability and is unlikely to see the drastic shifts in strategy that come from the fall of one political system and the rise of another. Democracy may be messy, but they’re not as much as coups or civil wars or cold murders.

 

Autocratic systems hardly are able to match any array of social developments and evolution with measurable track records except through a sustained propaganda that is hardly trusted by any.

 

These competing and complimenting tendencies are visible between democracy & autocracy.

 

China, an autocratic state today, has often envisioned in terms of decades. Commonly cited examples of such visions include OBOR/ BIR, Made in China 2025-an effort to subsidize China’s giant tech companies to become world leaders in 21st-century technologies to be a global superpower by 2049.

 

Many opinion makers believe that China’s state-led capitalism will prove more successful, in terms of economic growth, than the U.S. trust in free markets and open politics. I doubt these predictions. Autocratic leaders are unrestrained and do not have to face a legislature or courts, they have an easier time taking their countries in a radically different directions. Mao’s autocratic China ricocheted from one failed policy to another- the Great Leap Forward, then the Hundred Flowers Campaign, then the Cultural Revolution and several megalomaniac projects and one even lead to great famine. 

 

Mao should be taken as a classic case of grandiose failures & yet today his larger than life size portraits hang all over in China. A day can be also possible that his portrait may have the same fate as of Saddam, Gaddafi , Idi Amin and many others.

 

During Deng Xiaoping time, China pursued a fairly constant strategy of liberalizing its economy by “lying low and biding its time abroad”. But on the contrary, President Xi Jinping has changed China’s constitution to set himself up as dictator for life and eliminated his competitors by framing frivolous charges mostly. He stalled or reversed course on eight of 10 categories of economic reform promised by the Chinese Communist Party itself. World took a note of it & seriously.

 

The confrontational policies of China today are hastening an international coalition to tame it. The U.S. National Security declared China the foremost security threat to the U.S.A. The EU labelled China a systemic rival. A global consensus is emerging against China’s muscular & expansionist policies and time would test its strength and efficacy till it lasts. Arrogance often blindsides autocrats till they meet their nemesis.

 

The plans often cited as evidence of China’s farsighted vision, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Made in China 2025, were announced by Xi only in 2013 and 2015. Both are way too recent to be celebrated as brilliant examples of successful, long-term strategic planning- BRI has a lot more roadblock than is visible to Xi. But autocratic regimes are notoriously brittle. The domestic fragility will upset China’s efforts to all its grand plans & soon world would see the narrative of falsehood, when movements like Hong Kong, Uyghur, other oppressions gets a delta factor and erupts in all provinces, then the push would be hard for autocrats to handle. China is already deploying more of its forces in monitoring & repressing their own people and not defending the country.    

 

The world has undergone drastic changes in the past few years, but these enduring patterns of international affairs have not changed much.

 

Democratic political systems certainly have problems. But democracy is still the best machine ever invented for generating world orders, power, wealth, and sustenance on the international stage.

Lying comes naturally to the authoritarian government, which will create narratives to maintain its tight grip on the reins of power. Just a few examples are enough to buttress this.
 
Officials continue to lie about the number of deaths in Wuhan, the epicentre of the coronavirus. The official death toll is 2,500, but many authentic sources say that as many as 42,000 people could have died in the city. Now, seemingly, mutant strains have surfaced in Beijing and is not admitted.
 
But the dishonesty didn’t start with the coronavirus. The CPC has been lying for 31 years about the Tiananmen Square massacre of several thousand freedom-seeking students in June 1989.
 
The Chinese Communist government lies about its persecution of the Muslim Uighurs in western China. An estimated at least one million Uighurs have been placed in so-called “education centres”. No one knows how many have died in these camps while being “educated” nor do we know how many Uighurs have died of COVID-19 disease. No one knows how Xi regime is indulging in illegal organ trades by selling organs of its prisoners. No one knows how many died in prison due to this, but is an open truth globally.
 
The Chinese Communist government lied that it intended to honour its 1984 agreement with the British regarding the transfer of authority of Hong Kong to China and now they want it as mainland.
 
On every trade deal and export China, for many years, have been giving false declaration to gain trade and price advantage- be it misclassification of tariff number for products, be it its origins, be it on bilateral trade issues, it has lied at every step to gain advantages, it has stolen IP rights and have indulged in all lies that if compiled could be a compendium for global references.
 
Such calculated disinformation was the normal for USSR of 60’s & 70’s, during the peak of cold war era whose carbon copy Xi has clearly copied and rolled. The truth is that the Autocrat leaders regard any reporting of the facts as ultimately a threat to the stability of the regime.
 
In democracies leaders have also indulged in lies, corruptions, inappropriate behaviours etc. often. Telling the truth feels like giving up control. The last thing leaders want to feel is out-of-control or powerless so they indulge in a hyperbole narrative, which often are just plain lies.
In US context, every president in last sixty years have lied about with far more serious consequences. 

• John F. Kennedy covered up his unstable health, denied his many extra-marital affairs Hollywood stars, and lied about a non-existent “missile gap” in the 1960 presidential race. Once elected, he allowed the Pentagon to announce that none existed.
• The Nixon’s denial of White House involvement in the Watergate burglary & he was forced accept his part in the cover-up, which forced him to resign.
• Reagan’s Iran-contra scandal that he did not try to cover up Iran-contra, but directed his attorney general to conduct an immediate and thorough inquiry.
• Bill Clinton narrowly escaped impeachment for lying about his Oval Office affair with Monica Lewinsky.
• President Obama lied health care plan. That lie helped secure the passage of Obamacare and compelled four million Americans to seek another health care plan.
• Lyndon B. Johnson, who repeatedly promised during the 1964 presidential campaign,  about Vietnam war  soldier strength  of hardly 10,000 & at the very same time he send the first wave of more than 100,000 American servicemen to Vietnam that went up to 500,000 and fatalities reaching a total of 58,000 by the time fighting ended in 1973.
• Trump himself is a class in itself. I believe he is the most prolific liar in the history of American democracy. The Washington Post reported that Trump made 3,251 false or misleading claims during his first 497 days in office. That’s an average of nearly 7 “lies” a day. It has continued unabated and shamelessly.

Then a few examples of resignation in other democracies due to lies / inappropriate behaviours/ money scandals in last 50 years that are equally important to gauge the depth of democracies worldwide - 

• Willy Brandt- Chancellor of West Germany after the Guillaume affair that is the most    significant espionage history.
• Kakuei Tanaka- Prime Minister of Japan after allegations of corruption inquiry.
• Yitzhak Rabin- Prime Minister of Israel after allegations of financial improprieties.
• Mikhail Gorbachev- President of the USSR. ( A US spy who broke USSR put by Bush Sr.) Thabo Mbeki resigned as President of South Africa- after illegally interfering in the National Prosecuting Authority.
• Yasuo Fukuda, Prime Minister of Japan since 2007, citing problems with his leadership.
• Naoto Kan, Prime Minister of Japan- due to the Fukushima nuclear disaster.
• Silvio Berlusconi, Prime Minister of Italy, resigned due to economic crisis.

World can see the difference between a lie and hyperbole and accept it to a point & no more.

Around the globe, people are divided in their opinions on China & democracies and its narratives to be worthy of trusting. The irony is that countries that are ranked most corrupt see autocrats as trustworthy and less corrupt nations have low propensity to trust autocrats’ narratives. In contrast, investment from China is only weakly related to views of China across the countries. 

Enduring relationships had to be built on a foundation of truth & trust follows, but sadly, almost all leaders across the world take lies as the easiest narrative to further, yet knowing well that lies are unravelled ultimately and they are caught in that web with no escape.

The character of a nation is also perceived by truth and honesty. A nation’s leader that uses truth as a lever would never need a prop to hang a narrative to justify an honest action. Truth and lies both build perceptions and they endure as a tag and moniker for a nation.

North Korea- what is our perception? Sweden – what is our perception? Answers are clear to each one of us. That is what a character of leadership is all about.

 

Global leadership needs honesty in dealing, transparency and convictions to live by a truth. Can an Indians or Japanese ever trust a Chinese when they come to discuss trade & do incursion at borders in eye ball to eye ball conflict at borders? I would risk saying a big NO.

 

Trustworthy is a conjunction word- Trust & Worthy, they together mean a lot. Lack of trust & deficit of it is meaningless in global relations & are not worth it.

 

World leaders in democracies must lead with truth, it can be inconvenient for a while and may help one lose an initiative seemingly, but the world has an uncanny ability to know the truth and the lie. Lies don’t have legs and can’t go further & truth will never need a prop. 

 

Leaders must take note that Democracies are not for the gullible, nor is autocracy for the submissive.  

 

 

25 June 20

WHEN ELEPHANTS FIGHT- GRASS SUFFERS – RIP WTO

We generally accept fact as everybody’s truth while fiction becomes story with a twist and then equality & justice are amorphous concept, and at best, is a subjective truth. We find these ideas often at loggerheads with most religious beliefs, cultural moorings and social practices.

The world was never created equal; we should have fundamental clarity on this. All resources across the globe are cornered by men by power of their swords & never by equality and justice principles. Till date, the conflicting tendencies are visible across continents and would remain- it is our DNA and it is our history. It is our nature and is our social moorings to “have more”.

This same propensity to “have more” has extended itself as trade wars as incongruity is not out of greed, but is in the absence of finding a common ground. Sovereigns often forget that grip to power lies in not using it, but in ceding a bit of it to others to retain a podium position. 

Trade wars are the new conflict zones and potential time bombs that are bound to lacerate the world orders of dominance. Tariffs hikes are the first salvo fired in bilateral tensions that are multilateralizing and injuring global economic integration, coupled with ever more intense technology competitions and worse- thefts of it.

The evolving global trade and technology conflicts are the outcome of ever more worried Sovereigns discarding its multilateral cooperative stances for dominance in trade policies.

In the worst case, these conflicts may escalate into a “decoupling” of global economies and cause long lasting global recession and new geopolitical confrontation. It has potential to destabilise Far East, Asia, Middle East, Europe and America itself.

Trade frangibility could easily convert the world to universal conflict zone where any “ism” would need to be defined afresh.

Let us now get in the specifics of these globalised conflicts- USA- China- West & others.

In 2000, China’s economy was barely a tenth of the U.S. GDP. But after China became a member of the World Trade Organization in 2001, its export-led growth soared in the course of less than two decades; China rivals GDP of USA to the extent of two thirds by nominal GDP count. By PPP method, it is a different story altogether.

Globalization peaked after China joining the WTO in 2001 and the global financial crisis in 2008. Due to rising trade tensions and increased economic uncertainty, the WTO warned that global trade growth is losing momentum and that downside risks have grown in the global economy.

From Trade Tensions to Trade War has a short but a swift history that escalated only in 2016 when China peaked in global trade and Trump got up on pedestal.

If multilateral free trade is no longer what the United States wants, what does it want now? The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement signed recently may serve as a blueprint of the USA’s new muscular trade stances. The Agreement is has restrictive clauses for Sovereign States to prevent deals with China!!!

USA has already dropped a bombshell by declaring that it may ignore WTO rulings that are not in its favour. That is an alarming signals that the bell would toll for world trade orders under WTO. But there is no surprise here when one traces the WTO history to UNCTAD from 1964 onwards- It has a history of missteps, regrouping and walkouts.

Clearly, I see, a collapse of multilateralism in world trade order and significant changes in WTO trade rules much before the pandemic din dies down- that would be swift.

The casualties would not be China or USA or G7 or G20 nations, but would be the Least Developed Countries (LDC) that are allowed hiking of tariff under “Bound Rate” Rules under WTO. They were insulated to a large extent by trade rules that provided them gateways to hike import tariffs to protect domestic industries and some extent bilateralism and regionalism trade orders that existed prior to WTO rules at concessional tariff sidestepping WTO rules.

The economies of emerging economies and LDC’s would undergo a gravel shift- weakening them further. They would lose their toehold in global trade completely, especially the African, Latin American and parts of Asian countries.

They were the “Birds of a Golden Cage” who were unable to fly but were fed just enough to keep them alive. These countries never had sufficient “critical mass” to meet their domestic needs, yet were part of WTO multilateralism trade orders.

It defies wisdom that how they could possibly ever benefit from such trade deals, when their sustenance models are based on global grants and subsidies, how could they possibly participate in global export markets when they have insufficient to meet domestic need?

I have been questioning such wisdom for last twenty five years when WTO came in fruition that how such LDC & weaker economies could benefit with a WTO trade deal?

Now, with the golden cage about to go soon, they would lose their ability to fly as well and would lead to a massive collapse of such economies, pushing millions and millions of people in such countries below the poverty lines as defined by UN- less than a dollar a day income!!!

China is still an export oriented economy and for more than a decade, they are trying to rebalance by drawing increased support from domestic demand, China be better able to withstand the pressure of tariffs and other actions that are aimed at its exporters and the truth is that China need not be so worried about US, as it also depends on China to support its own exports. The supply chain matrix is so complex today that no nation that is in export & Import is insulated from the intractability of interdependence of global trade orders. 

China also is the largest holder of U.S. Treasury securities – some $1.5 trillion that has given China a leg up in even managing currency & therefore, US would ultimately get out of its hostility post this election by year end 2020.

Therefore, to single out China as the villain in the American conundrums, when in USA should take a hard & careful look in the mirror to reflect upon its series of mistakes that has weakened the US position globally for decades and blaming China alone of its mess would not be right.

A low-saving economy can't escape without trade deficits. The net domestic saving rate in USA is headed toward zero or even lower & that should be the topmost worry for US.

The US trade deficits are likely to widen sharply in coming days and if reckless protectionist actions are not kept in abeyance, then global recession would just prolong much longer because two large Sovereign nations decided to fight a trade war.   

But it takes two to tango- China’s dishonest commercial practices are far more dubious than the legitimacy that it wants to project. Intellectual property theft and state aid issues are a significant source of controversy. The western economies know this day one and yet allowed to continue such practices without raising and acting on the red flags.

Industrial copying & Intellectual property thefts are not only the result of cutting-edge industrial espionage but also a widespread practice that is encouraged by state in China.

The problem of state aid is common in all countries to compete globally, but Chinese government giving local businesses an advantage over their competitors opaquely. There is no level playing field when one is trying to compete with Chinese goods.

 The rise in bilateral agreements entails both opportunities and risks for the multilateral negotiating system. The WTO will then become a chatterbox where nothing meaningful can be agreed. USA by this rhetoric is definitely harming multilateralism that it espoused and helped form WTO. The political will of major powers is a prerequisite for reforms & systemic changes in the global economy.

WTO was fit to regulate 20^th and early 21^st century trade, which was based on cross-border product sales and market access, but current 21st-century trade is a multi-way flow of goods, services, knowledge, investments and professionals that builds an eco system for trade.

Eventually, WTO might remain in place for the resolution of old-fashioned disputes of the likes of ethical work practices, pollution, fair compensation etc, but more complex issues, zonal trade balances, country specific trade deficits & reciprocatory trade would get resolved through bilateral agreements. WTO would see its role getting diminished.

This is where we finally come to the real problem of trading with China, which is not unique to the US—Europe, but the other innovation centres also faces identical risks. As national security partners, the US and the EU also share more specific concerns, such as over-reliance on China’s ICT infrastructure or other future technologies. This imbroglio in essence is the fight for dominance over 5-G technology that US & West is not willing to cede to China.

While China sees 5-G as an opportunity in multi trillion Dollar trade and USA is unwilling to accept relegation that it claims at its own & blames China just being a plagiariser.

When it comes to who triumphed in the multi trillion global races to launch the world’s first 5-G next generation wireless network, the winner is depending on who you ask as there are many claimants to the fame- AT&T, Verizon, Samsung, Huawei, Ericson & others as well.

Given the rise in Europe of political populism, their supporters are broadly similar to those of US in socio-economic terms; the broader trade-policy concerns of the US and the EU appear almost identical and have a common adversary- China.

Countries would need more political space to defend their domestic economic priorities and that must be respected. The trade relations framework needs to be made more flexible to encompass national interests instead of creating more inflamed conflict zones.

 Globalisation, if doesn’t embrace all in a society, is a failure if in developing countries the worker class has not  benefitted from more income as the country improves its global trades. To that extent, China has done remarkably well and has moved to middle income country.

This has sadly not happened in real term basis on a global basis. In the US context, the main losers from globalisation are unskilled workers, whose real income has remained unchanged for last 30 years. 

The tale of such woes in developing economies in Asia, Latin America, Africa & European nations, outside EU, is a sordid tale of exploitative practices. Migrant workers’ crisis of India is stoic and sordid reminder of exploitative labour practices in developing economies.

It has become a trendy political rhetoric to blame other countries for trade deals & yet international trade has played an essential role in the economic success of the US, Europe, many others and China. However, despite commercial and financial successes, specific marginalised group there faces an existential threat to their way of life and income.

The core of current trade wars are not over toys for the big boys & flying machines or metal tubes spitting fire or over resource cornering in Antarctica or in Africa or just seeking incremental market shares- those are interchangeable resources having no one’s monopoly, but are pivoted around technologies that have potential to generate trillions of Dollars make for years whosoever is able to claim that fame and patent it by making the first strike.

The economic effect of the trade war imposing trade restrictions inevitably brings about an economic recession. Thus, one of the possible short-term consequences of the escalation of the trade war is an economic crisis, accelerated by COVID 19, where doing trade a near impossibility and if blame game & propaganda politics by two largest economies doesn’t stop, the intricate clockwork of the international economy stops.

The common enemy that the world has today is the pandemic & its contagion effect on global economies that is crippled to a point of desperation for most countries- that needs a solution & not trade & tariffs wars.

There is no place and time in a busy world for hostilities, animosity and trade wars. There won’t be a redeemer after this as in finality the crisis of dominance of leadership pole position.

They say in Africa- WHEN ELEPHANTS FIGHT- GRASS SUFFERS. The less endowed nations- the grass, on which the elephants fight is silent and clueless and is suffering.

 

June 17 2020

HOW THE USA & THE WEST LOST ITS LEADERSHIP PLOT

The pandemic is just a trigger that is sweeping the globe and has done much more than take lives and livelihoods across the length & breadth of the world. The current virus crisis given is much deeper than that.

It has shaken the fundamental assumptions that the peaceful capitalism of the USA constitutes exceptionalism that it played for decades as global leader and an example to the world but its fabric started to change in last four decades.

Despite the warnings that have been sounded for decades, USA looked the other way while its corporations, always looking for cheaper labour and short-term profits, outsourced their production overseas, devastating own manufacturing & basic service industries.

Job loss is not a new phenomenon out of this pandemic, but has been a deep rooted problem in USA & Europe due to its policies, which is now getting blindsided by supplicant motives where profit is the only concern that matters.

Blatant capitalism is no more a panacea that would repair the social markers in USA- or help stopping immigration and trade embargoes.

Instead of spending money on infrastructure and investing in a more robust health system, massive tax cuts were given to the big corporations that used it to suit their purposes, largely for share buy backs, profligate purposes and unwanted eye popping bonuses.

It seems USA has lost the plot faster than anyone had contemplated.

Global orders have a tendency to change gradually at first and then all at once. In 1956, a botched intervention in the Suez laid bare the decay in British power and breakup of USSR in 1991 marked the end of the United Kingdom’s & Soviet Union’s reign as a global power.

Today, U.S. policymakers should recognize that if it does not rise to meet the moment, the pandemic could take another deep stab at its global leadership.

Missteps by key US Institutions have undermined confidence in the competence of U.S. governance and exposed its flanks to the world visibly.

Public statements by US President have largely served to sow confusion and spread uncertainty. Internationally, the pandemic has amplified its display that how unprepared USA is to lead a global response under a shaky leadership.

The status of the USA as a global leader over the past seven decades has been built not just on wealth and power, but also on the legitimacy that flows from the its domestic governance, provision of global public goods, and ability and willingness to muster and coordinate a global response to crises.

The virus pandemic is testing all possible elements of US leadership. So far, it has failed the test.

US President’s recent actions on WHO & UNO could, at best, would be seen as an egotistical and irrational decision that not only weakened those global bodies, but also seriously puts world at its wits end to judge American Leadership wisdom.

We are living in an era of Collaboratism where leadership is not by dominance of military hardware or damaging software, but by leading with examples by building an enduring goodwill by right actions and in right time for larger goods.

Leadership isn’t altruism. It is seeing beyond the horizon. A dominant power must endure costs to achieve a collective benefit. America, since 1945 has often fitted that description, from supporting NATO to setting up international institutions like the World Bank or funding others like the United Nations, WHO & others that for last few years USA had undermined them at every step.

China had astutely taken advantage of the opening created by USA’s mistakes, filling the vacuum to position itself as the global leader in pandemic response. It is working to push its own system, provide material assistance to other countries when the desperation is visible. The sheer conceit of its move is hard to overstate it was China’s own missteps, and especially its efforts to glaze the severity and spread of the outbreak that helped create the very crisis now afflicting much of the world. Yet it understands that if it is seen as leading, then USA is seen as unwilling to do so. Curiously, it is positioning itself as binary.

This mind game perception that China is playing could fundamentally alter the USA position in global politics and hence leadership in coming decades.

It is painful to observe that follies of a person at helm has made the global leadership issue a binary and China is happy playing ball along that it currently is winning.

China wants to turn these early signs of success into a narrative to tell the world brushing asides its downside of authoritarian regime. It has learnt that providing global goods can burnish a rising power’s leadership credentials globally.

When no European state answered Italy’s urgent appeal for medical equipment and protective gear, China publicly committed resources to Italy & to EU to fight the pandemic to the worst affected countries in the union.

China’s advantage in material assistance is enhanced by the simple fact that most of what the world depends on to fight the virus & otherwise is made in China. Asides, medicines & antibiotics those are critical for major diseases, including for COVID 19, it produces the vast majority of active pharmaceutical ingredients necessary to make them and fulfils majority of global demands in medicine raw materials.

The USA, by contrast today, lacks the supply and capacity to meet many of its own demands, let alone to provide aid in crisis zones elsewhere. Profit motives of US companies moved manufacturing them to China in last thirty years.

China’s share of the U.S. antibiotics market is more than 95 percent. Beijing, in contrast, is offering aid precisely when the global need is greatest that USA is unable to fulfil and extend. Howsoever opportunistic it may be, it gets optics.

During the 2014–15 Ebola crises, USA led a coalition of dozens of countries to counter the spread of the disease. The Trump administration has so far shunned a similar leadership effort to respond to the coronavirus. Even coordination with allies has been lacking.

China, by contrast, has undertaken a robust diplomatic campaign and it is working hard to publicize such initiatives. Every story on the front page of its party line organs shouts of its efforts to help different countries underscoring the superiority of its approach.

The ultimate success of China’s pursuit to global leadership will depend as much on what happens in USA and it can still turn the tide, if it proves capable of doing what is expected of a leader; managing the problems at home, supplying global public goods, and coordinating a global response. 

Every misstep by USA is a steppingstone for China towards the pedestal.

A few global events post China’s liberalisation abased USA’s global leadership to begin with & let us look at these chronologies to get a feel of it-

·        Breaking up of USSR in 1991 that USA was celebrating as end of cold war & its global dominance, China quietly expanded its market in the world by offering basic goods at cheaper cost than any that systematically killed competitions across globe and gaining scales unmatched globally.

 

·        While USA was busy after 9/11 in hunting the terrorists & weapons of mass destructions, China quietly got surefooted by joining WTO in 2001, thereby accepting the world order and only to change the competitive matrix of the world to become a dominant player by becoming “Factories to the world”.  

 

·        While in 2007/2008, USA was grappling with financial market meltdown; China quietly started acquiring listed companies in USA & began its technology dominance journey emulating Silicon Valley story and created a matching niche over the decade in Guangzhou in Pearl River Delta. 

 

·        The Paris Agreement of 2016 is a historic accord that brings almost 200 countries together in setting a common target an effort to fight climate change, USA decided to walk out of the deal and instead was busy exploding MOAB on the borders of Afghanistan and Pakistan in 2017.

All these pivot events above gradually allowed China to get a grip over the world, while US lost its grip by its own motives.

Ultimately, the virus would serve as a wake-up call, spurring progress on other global challenges requiring USA- Global cooperation without excluding China. US cannot do well by chanting America First alone.

The leadership in democracies are tricky till the true worth of leaders are known and a wrong choice means rapid to dominance in the world pecking orders that the world is unwilling to accept today by being what one was.

To be a leader at global stage, to do more for the world shall be the key and then also do some more when one has already done a bit more.

Leadership of a nation cannot be transactional and has to look beyond the immediate consequences and larger public goods. Nor it is a binary of “them versus us”. Leadership is defined by results not by features.

Characters and strategies both matter in global leadership, but when it is hard to choose between the two- world must choose character, but right now the world is in a quagmire where it must find sanity by sidestepping a megalomaniac and an arrogant selfish.

The world leadership is changing- it will- it should and it must; pandemic just provided the gateway as a facilitator.

 

11 June 2020

Ten people when make more noise than thousands silent becomes a Lobbyist

Lobbying, as defined by Napoleon Bonaparte, is the heading for this article. It is arguably one of the most controversial & oldest activities in modern societies that is threatened to its core by the weight of money power and has morphed in toxic capitalism that now has started debasing societies and countries across the globe.

 

But, alternative models of governance is equally culpable, if not more, for more malaise as their deliberation are by a non transparent governance model is not even in public domain.

 

The champion of legitimising of lobbying in modern societies is undoubtedly the USA & following that are most of the rich democracies in the Europe.  These countries have legitimised lobbying- and have reframed the matrix of bribing in plain sight by large corporate to the governments.

 

Politicians have become the policy advocates for corporate and it has become open and shameless, more so in poor democracies like India and the likes. I call it sham democracy.

 

At this point, I hope we have started getting the sense how lobbyists have diluted democratic processes the world over and have brought weaker democratic countries to its knees that democracy itself is in peril, unless participative transparency is restored- the basis of democracy. 

 

The advocacy matrix in democracies have subjugated the societies by legitimising actions by lobbyists that allowed plundering of natural resources, land grabs, resource cornering, bending of laws, throttle the human rights, unfair compensation for land owners and relocating them to arid and flood plains robbing them of legitimacy of existence and worse introducing secrecy acts.

 

Should we consider lobbying as a legitimate activity in a representative democracy? It is worth noting that no country in the world, including India, has banned lobbying.

 

Many countries treat lobbying as a legitimate right of citizens. Regulations serve as a tool to enhance transparency in the policymaking process rather than restricting access to policymakers. But they are for enlightened few in European democracies. Rest are analogous where a public opinion and citizen’s right is a facade by bribing citizens by making them stakeholders.

 

Naturally, the moral compasses in the societies are now seen without a needle- and then how does the direction matters in a moral compass?

 

Countries such as the USA, Australia and Canada define lobbying as any communication with a legislator to influence decisions on a policy matter, but generally exempt communication with parliamentary committees and responses as lobbying; a clear brother in arms and partners in crime set of symptoms.

 

In India during the furore over Wal-Mart’s disclosure of lobbying activities in India, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) denounced lobbying as nothing but a euphemism for bribery when they were in opposition.

In contrast, when they came to power in 2014, a private member’s Bill to regulate lobbying was introduced in the parliament instead of tabling the bill for debate in both houses of parliaments.

 

Electoral Bonds in India is one such example of bribery openly and in plain sight by businessmen without going through the lobbying route where a donation is made to a political party & mostly to the party in power, without disclosing the name of the bond issuer. What can be more legitimate corrupt practice than this anywhere in the world?

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In the Indian public perception, lobbyists are viewed as representatives of big businesses who indulge in corrupt practices to push their agenda by compromising on the right of citizen and their inheritances.  

 

However, there are a large number of advocacy groups who campaigns for policy reforms. They are driven by public goods and not by the motives of profits. For example in India Right to Information Act (RTI), Protection of Women from Domestic Violence Act, 2005, an anti-corruption law called the Lokpal Bill and several others have been a result of advocacy groups who lobbied for social changes backed with mass public campaign.

 

The influence of these groups lies in the public support they are able to garner, therefore, there is some merit in including both commercial and advocacy groups in the definition of lobbyists so that neither have undue advantage in influencing policy & law makers.

 

Countries, like, India needs to determine a regulatory model that suits its socio-political ground realities and can ill afford to copy laws of USA, Germany or any other country to frame any law. It would meet a tough resistance by advocacy groups and would suffer withdrawals. Enough examples exists for such events and withdrawals worldwide  

 

Although lobbying by various interest and advocacy groups is widespread in the world, the public mostly remains unaware of it unless a scandal breaks.

 

Some work even as a subterfuge for political campaign for political parties & often go unnoticed. But one lobbying scandal that became the hottest political campaign corruption was Cambridge Analytica & eighty seven million Facebook users data hacks that eventually made Donald Trump the President of the United States of America. BREXIT was also “managed” by shadow campaign & now Brits are in a fix after voting for exit from EU.

 

There are a few key steps that lobbying businesses usually follows to bend government to their will by their sidekicks- The Lobbyists.

 

·     They try to control the ground zero

Lobbyists have succeeded by bending and steering conversations away from those they can't win and on to those they can. If a public discussion on a company's environmental impact is unwelcome, lobbyists will push instead to have a debate on a subject they want to lobby & its benefits. Once this narrowly framed conversation becomes dominant, the dissenting voices will appear marginal and irrelevant.

 

Every business does it, including lobbyists for liberalising nuclear power, public sector reform and bank regulation, mining privatisation, defence deals, etc. It doesn't matter if the new frame relies on unsubstantiated data and fabrications thereof, including fake surveys & opinions etc.

 

·     Spinning the media

More noise in media is, less control lobbyists have. Media is critical tool to begin a dialogue with government, though, the media is crucial. Messages are carefully crafted. Even if the corporate goal is pure, self-interested profit-making, it will be dressed up to appear synonymous with the wider, national interest. At the moment, that means economic growth and jobs.

 

·     Buy in credibility & Doctor a following

Corporate are one of the least credible sources of information for the public & by popular perceptions public hardly trusts them for any actions they take.

 

Corporate would then hire advocacy/ lobbying groups & create a large following by induced contacts, create media contents & contacts, online campaigns by shadow NGO’s that are having master slave relations with the corporate and emotionally induce people to join campaigns and create a followers base, some genuine and mostly fakes. Corporate & Politicians do it regularly. They would have millions of followers on twitters, all doctored and fake, but in campaign trails they would not be able to garner even few hundred of them on ground.

 

In India political campaigns would have hundreds of thousands of people in a rally and almost all are joining by financial inducements ranging from Rs. 150 to 200 (2 to 3 US$) plus a packed cheap meals of not more that 20 cents of a dollar.

The optics on TV media makes for huge tractions that helps channel attract advertisements at premium costs. They spin the video very often even for days ahead together.  

Most of TV Media has become worldwide a slave of political class in power mostly. That is why we find TV channels often funded by crowd sourced funds to retain their independence.    

 

·      Sponsor a think-tank & neutralise your critics & oppositions

The think-tank route is often engaged by lobbyist to undercover reporters that provides corporate a lobbying package- a media-friendly report at a price.

 

Have we ever tried to wonder how so many private insurers have invaded the insurance business in India? That is precisely done by the lobbyist groups to sell to governments the inefficiencies in the sector to tweak the policies to create space for private insurers.

 

A constant media and online campaign by aggregators engaged by the insurers have been able to change public perceptions that private insurance is better services.

 

A farm and crop insurance scheme launched by Indian government recently allowed private insurers to participate in the general risk basket. Readers would be amazed & shocked that in past two years farmers paid nearly 14 Billion US Dollars (Rs. 1 lakh crore) in premium and had nearly 12 Billion US$ in claims and were settled only 1.2 billion US$ or roughly Rs. Less than ten thousand crores- a mere 5 to 9% settlements maximum.

 

This is the nefarious nexus of politicians, corporate, lobbyist and advocacy Groups in India that made the process of insurance claim so obtuse that hardly any claimant could fulfil claim criteria, hence claims were rejected. One who made noise and threatened to take the insurance companies to court, the district authorities, responsible for certifying damages reviewed the claims & they got paid & thus the critics were silenced and peace was bought.

 

Keep tracking media as India now have locust swarms invading the crops in central and north India & the crop damage is extensive and by some media estimates close to one lakh crores rupees already as you read this. Let us see how much insurers indemnify the insured. Time would tell, but given the track records of media, claim will never make a news item. 

 

Lobbying and advocacy has done more harm to society than good, especially in weak democracies where legal frameworks are not strong. A law to regulate lobbying could pave the way for transparency in the policymaking process. However, all these initiatives can only work when democracy is strong, that is getting weaker by influences from lobbyist in cahoots with corporate and politicians It is an inconvenient truth that is seeking to augment corruption in public life and in politics. Public advocacy & lobbying is not as bad as long as it strengthens the democratic processes, by promoting better education deliveries, independent judiciary, better health for all, elderly care, child care, right to education and right to food & sanitations and generally all socio-economy markers that are harnessed to improve the life of citizens.

 

A shift to lobbying as a means of engaging with the legislative process would further the ideals of a participative democracy provides ground rules are legislated transparently by engagements with civil societies & administration before government brings in shady laws.

 

Now that becomes, the यक्ष प्रश्न (Yaksh Prashna), a million dollar question that has no definitive answer as the question hang perpetually over the government’s head about regulating the lobbyists & advocacy groups.

 

In the meantime, the surreptitious practices of lobbyists engaged by legitimate group secretively would continue unabated in various morphs and citizens would keep on paying the price for sweet talking and gullibility.

 

How naive the world has become in front of incredulous corporate, governments that has sold lies packaged as good for societies that has been lapped up only to buy a ticket to doom in longer terms.

 

Action is the sole medium of expression for ethics on ground & how money speaks loudest than all morals & ethics combined can shout from the rooftops. 

 

01 June, 2020